The Purdue Boilermakers have the most-experienced roster remaining in the NCAA Tournament, and the 6-point underdogs will need to lean on their veterans to have a chance against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday, March 28.
My Purdue vs. Arizona props and March Madness picks side with the Boilermakers thanks to this being the exact matchup that should most worry the Wildcats.
Purdue vs Arizona props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Fletcher Loyer |
Over 3.5 3-Pointers | +140 |
| Braden Smith |
Over 9.5 Assists | +155 |
 Jaden Bradley |
Under 12.5 Points | -105 |
Prop #1: Fletcher Loyer Over 3.5 3-Pointers
Senior shooter Fletcher Loyer has hit exactly four 3-pointers in five of his last six games, including all three NCAA Tournament games. In this stretch, he has hit 53.5% of his shots from beyond the arc.
Shooting efficiently and at volume like that is Purdue’s best — perhaps only — path to this upset. Arizona does not shoot many 3-pointers, but it scores with ruthless efficiency at the rim. To counter that, the Boilermakers need to see someone like Loyer shine.
That urgency may sound like an alarm, but it is an emphasis more than anything else. No matter the game state, Loyer will be encouraged to chuck from deep. And the way he is shooting right now, he may need to pull up only six or seven times to cash this plus-money prop.
Prop #2: Braden Smith Over 9.5 Assists
There was some thought to betting on Braden Smith’s 3-pointers Over as well as Loyer’s. Smith’s is set as low as 1.5 with the Over paying +100. Raising that to 3+ threes would garner a +310 payout.
But Smith is 7-of-30 (23.3%) from beyond the arc in the seven games of the postseason thus far. While he is experienced enough to not be cowed by a cold streak, and Purdue will certainly look to Smith to produce to keep up with Arizona, his shooting struggles scare off any such thought.
He will still have the ball in his hands on almost every possession, though. The Boilermakers’ best counter to the Wildcats’ pace will be Smith pounding the ball into the floor until he initiates Purdue’s offense. With his shot struggling, initiating the offense should lead to only more playmaking.
Smith has dished out 10+ assists in three of seven games this postseason, lending it a bounty of credibility when considering his Over/Under prop is set at 8.5 with the Over costing -105. Is one more assist not worth 60 cents?
Prop #3: Jaden Bradley Under 12.5 Points
Consider this a bet on the full-game Under 152.5. Purdue should try to slow down this Elite Eight matchup. By their default state, the Boilermakers play excellent transition defense and are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country, both aspects that should lessen Arizona’s pace.
Doing so will then allow Purdue to settle into a good, albeit not great, defense. That defense encourages bad looks from deep with frequency, an area that will frustrate the Wildcats, while keeping multiple big bodies in the paint.
Jaden Bradley is a passer more than a scorer in the first place. Bogging Arizona down into the halfcourt will force him to be even more of a playmaker rather than look for his own buckets.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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