The Wisconsin Badgers conquered their struggles against big men in defeating UNC. But now they have to deal with a dynamic backcourt – maybe the most dynamic backcourt – when they face the No. 1 seeded Baylor Bears in a second-round college basketball betting matchup.
The South Region saw a couple of major upsets on Day 1—will Baylor be the next to bow out early?
See our thoughts in our free March Madness picks and predictions for Wisconsin vs. Baylor on March 21.
Wisconsin vs Baylor odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires has gone back-and-forth between Baylor -6 and -6.5, and the line is at the -6 opener as of 12:30 p.m. ET, about two hours before tipoff. The Bears are landing 63 percent of bets and 69 percent of money on the point spread. The total moved from 137 to 136 and back to 137 on two-way play, with 59 percent of bets on the Over and 54 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWisconsin Badgers vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Wisconsin: None.
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 11-2 in the Bears' last 13 games as a favorite. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wisconsin vs. Baylor.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Wisconsin went into its first game of the NCAA Tournament just 3-7 SU (3-6-1 ATS) in their last 10 games, struggling immensely against big men and facing a UNC squad that had more size than any other team in the nation.
The Badgers responded by laying an 85-62 beating on the Tar Heels, but are we sold on Wisconsin?
Wisconsin shot 13 for 27 from beyond the arc in the win, its second-most triples in a game this year and forcing a young and inexperienced UNC backcourt into 38.5 percent shooting from the field.
The top-seeded Baylor Bears, on the other hand, are the exact opposite of UNC. Baylor features a three-headed veteran backcourt that leads the nation's third-highest scoring offense and is No. 3 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency.
Baylor, which still has the second-best March Madness odds, had been a little inconsistent heading into the Big Dance, following a COVID-disrupted schedule, but flexed its muscles in an easy 79-55 win over No. 16 Hartford. Yes, the Bears failed to cover a 25-point spread, but we can forgive them as the backups were running the ship for the final minutes.
The Bears' strength – a veteran backcourt – matches up perfectly against Wisconsin's best aspects...and they're even better. Baylor also shot just 33.3 percent from beyond the arc against Hartford, well below its season average of 41.8 percent.
We're expecting the Bears to get better with each Tournament game, with the Badgers coming back down to Earth after an uncharacteristic offensive explosion, so give us the top dogs in the South to roll on to the Sweet 16.
PREDICTION: Baylor -6 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Wisconsin is 22nd in the nation with 69.6 points per game, but it is 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and hit the Over for the fifth time in its last six games.
The Badgers were able to clear the 136 total (by 11 points) against a UNC club that shot poorly and is more defensively oriented, but they are only facing a total that is 1.5 points higher on Sunday—against a Baylor team that is far more superior on offense and not quite as proficient on the defensive end.
We're not expecting the Badgers to hit 48 percent of their threes again (they normally hit treys at a 36 percent clip) but facing a truly elite Bears offense should make up for that and push this game Over the total.
PREDICTION: Over 137.5 (-110)
Team total pick
The Bears puttered in the first 10 minutes against Hartford but then got into a rhythm and didn't stop until the bench was emptied.
Baylor's dynamic trio of Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague combined for 57 of the team's 79 points, and we expect them to power the No. 1 seed's offense again as it goes Over a total that it depressed against a tricky Wisconsin defense.
PREDICTION: Baylor Over 71.5 points (-120)
Wisconsin vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -6 (-110)
- Over 137.5 (-110)
- Baylor Over 71.5 points (-120)
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