USC vs Michigan State Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Defense Steps up in Day 2 Opener

The second day of the First Round of March Madness picks kicks off Friday morning as the No. 7 seed Michigan State Spartans (19-12) battle with the No. 10 seed USC Trojans (22-10) at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH. March Madness odds have the Spartans as tepid favorites to advance.

The coaching matchup is a spectacular one, and is sure to garner plenty of media interest. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo is a coaching legend who has made the Final Four on eight different occasions. While Andy Enfield’s track record isn’t quite as indelible as his legendary counterpart, he famously led Florida Gulf Coast — Dunk City — to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed in 2012-13. He also brought USC to the Elite Eight two years ago.

Which of these coaches will advance to the Second Round? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Michigan State to find out. 

USC vs Michigan State best odds

USC vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Tom Izzo's resume in March speaks for itself, as eight Final Four appearances are absolutely nothing to scoff at. 

Is this year’s team the best version that he’s put on the court in his lengthy career? Of course not — but these Spartans aren’t too shabby, either. Michigan State checks in at 32nd overall in KenPom, ranking 41st in offensive efficiency and 40th in defensive efficiency. Only 13 teams in the nation crack the Top 40 in both metrics. While the Spartans don’t make the cut, they clearly are right on the cusp. This is a well-rounded team that can’t be easily taken down. 

Michigan State went just 5-9 in Quad 1 games, but was dominant in Quad 2 games, going 8-2. They shoot the three extremely well, ranking third nationally in 3-point percentage at 39.5%. They get good guard play out of Tyson Walker (14.6 ppg) and A.J. Hoggard (12.5 ppg), which matters in March. 

USC arrives at 36th overall in KenPom — 43rd in offensive efficiency and 48th in defensive efficiency. The Trojans are a Top 50 team in both metrics, similar to the Spartans, although they fail to stand out in any one area. 

The similarities don’t stop there, as they are also led by two good guards in Boogie Ellis (18.0 ppg) and Drew Peterson, who leads the team in rebounds (6.2) and assists (4.4) while ranking second in scoring (14.0 ppg). They also struggled in Quad 1 games (3-6) while succeeding in Quad 2 games (7-2).

Neither team likes to shoot threes, as Michigan State ranks 296th in its percentage of shots taken from behind the arc, while USC is right below at 299th. Michigan State would be wise to take more shots from outside in this matchup, but that hasn’t been the game plan for the majority of this season. 

This game will likely be played heavily inside the arc considering both teams’ reluctance to hoist jumpers from deep. I have my eye on the total for my best bet considering the inefficiency we can project for both squads from 2-point range.

The Spartans shoot just 47.7% on 2-point field goals, ranking 298th nationally. Scoring inside will be difficult against the Trojans, who boast the second-best 2-point defense at 42.4%. USC is strong at protecting the paint, ranking 19th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. They are led by 6-foot-11 shot-blocker Joshua Morgan (2.3 blocks per game). The Trojans have a size advantage down low, as no Michigan State player seeing rotational minutes stands above 6-foot-9. 

When USC has the ball, it mainly thrives off getting to the foul line. The Trojans convert 14.3 free throws per game and shoot them at 74.4%, both Top-80 marks nationally. Michigan State has been good about limiting fouls, ranking 88th nationally with just 16.0 per game. Big Ten refs are notorious for swallowing the whistle, so it will be interesting to see what happens in the big dance.

USC’s offense is too reliant on the mid-range, as it ranks 13th in its percentage of shots that come on 2-point jumpers. The Spartans will be happy to let the Trojans let it fly from there, as Izzo’s squad ranks 251st in mid-range attempt rate allowed, yet 14th in mid-range defense (Haslametrics). 

There’s reason to forecast limited offensive output for both teams. The pace in this one shouldn’t be very fast, as Michigan State ranks 304th in adjusted tempo, while USC checks in at 140th. Add in the fact that this is the earliest tip on the board for Day 2, and I’m happy to play the Under in a sleepy start to Friday’s contests.

My best bet: Under 138 (-110 at PointsBet)

USC vs Michigan State spread analysis

The oddsmakers favor Michigan State in this one, as it currently sits as a -2 favorite at most sportsbooks. 

Enfield deserves props for the job he’s done thus far in his career. This will be the Trojans’ fifth NCAA Tournament appearance — the most for any coach in program history. 

That being said, I think a lot of other factors favor Michigan State. The Trojans have major health concerns, as two players are dealing with back injuries — not what you want to hear in preparation for a tournament. Big man Vincent Iwuchukwu missed the Pac-12 Tournament, while Peterson played through the injury but looked ineffective. 

Iwuchukwu’s status is uncertain, and I believe that factor isn’t being given enough credence. He’s an impact five-star freshman and without him, the Trojans wouldn’t enjoy as much of a size advantage. He and Morgan were rarely healthy at the same time this season, and USC looked much better with both in the rotation at the same time. A less-than-100% Peterson — who is considered probable for the First Round — would be critical, as he’s the ignitor for this team’s offensive task both as a shooter and a distributor. 

Both teams could struggle to score inside the arc, while Michigan State knocks down threes at an elite rate and USC does not (34.5% on just 18.8 attempts per game). 

This venue should favor the Spartans, who get to remain near their home state in what’s just a four-hour trip to Columbus. This is quite a trek for the Trojans, however, as they travel 2,245 miles to the midwest.

No. 7 seeds have won their First Round Matchup against No. 10 seeds at a 60.4% clip since 1985. 

USC vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

USC has been an Under machine in neutral site games, going 9-3 O/U in its last 12 such games. This team is heavily reliant on mid-range jumpers — the least-efficient shot in basketball. 

Michigan State is a decent team on the boards, ranking 66th in rebounding percentage. Not all of those mid-range jumpers from USC will fall, and the Spartans are a good enough rebounding team to clean up a lot of those misses, even though they will be at a size disadvantage. 

The Spartans would be wise to draw more offensive fouls considering they are a great free-throw-shooting team at 76.2%, good for 33rd nationally. They simply don’t draw enough fouls, however, getting to the line just 14.8 times per game — 339th nationally. The Trojans do a pretty good job of walling off the rim with Morgan (and Iwuchukwu, if he’s available) without fouling, ranking Top 10 in blocks per game (5.2) and 189th in free throw attempts allowed per game (17.9).

Michigan State has a strange profile because they shoot the ball very well both from behind the arc and at the charity stripe, yet it attempts startingly few of both shots per game. The Spartans play at a slow pace under Izzo and lack a ton of verve from its offensive playmakers. While their penchant for knocking down jumpers and playing through their guards may serve them well against a Trojans team adept at defending the rim, I can’t rely on them doing so with enough volume to make this a high-scoring game. 

USC vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Under is 9-3 in USC’s last 12 neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Michigan State.

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