The No. 14 seed Montana State Bobcats face the No. 3 Kansas State Wildcats in the first round of our March Madness picks on Friday night.
The Wildcats far exceeded preseason expectations and are installed at +1,000 to make it to the Final Four for the first time since 1964. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are simply looking to advance past the first round for the first time in program history.
March Madness odds opened with the Wildcats as 8.5-point favorites for this East Region clash. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Montana State vs. Kansas State on March 17.
Montana State vs Kansas State best odds
Montana State vs Kansas State picks and predictions
The Kansas State Wildcats put together a terrific regular season but much of their success came at home and they didn't look anywhere near as good on the road or at neutral sites. They now face a Montana Bobcats team that has won eight-straight games and matches up pretty well against them.
The Wildcats do an excellent job of closing down perimeter shooters but the Bobcats rarely shoot from beyond the arc and are just 295th in the country in 3-point rate.
Instead, the Bobcats prefer to efficiently score closer to the hoop and draw fouls. They should have no trouble implementing this against a KSU team that ranks 285th in the country in free-throw attempts allowed per play.
On the other side of the ball, the Wildcats attack the rim at the third-highest frequency in the country per ShotQualityBets. However, the Bobcats have a pair of powerful big men in the paint and rank sixth in the country at defending the rim.
Factor in Kansas State's issues with giving the ball away (299th in the country in turnover rate), plus Montana State's tendency to soak up the shot clock, and the underdogs should be able to cover this spread.
My best bet: Montana State +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Montana State vs Kansas State spread analysis
Kansas State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 entering this season, but instead went 11-7 in the toughest conference in the country and locked up a No. 3 seed in the tourney.
The Wildcats ended their regular season with an 89-81 defeat to West Virginia before losing by 13 points to TCU in the conference tournament, but that shouldn't take away from an impressive season. They swept the season series against No. 2 seed Texas and No. 3 seed Baylor while also beating No. 1 seed Kansas.
Kansas State's Keyontae Johnson (17.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game) and Markquis Nowell (16.8 ppg along with a conference-high 7.6 assists and 2.4 steals per game) were both named first-team All-Big 12 selections. Big man Nae'quan Tomlin is the squad's third double-digit scorer and averages 10.2 ppg and 6.0 rpg.
The Bobcats are coming off their second-straight Big Sky title after beating Northern Arizona 85-78 last Wednesday. They've won eight games in a row but are just 3-6 against the spread in their previous nine.
Former four-star recruit RaeQuan Battle leads Montana State with 17.4 ppg and forwards Jubrile Belo and Grant Osobor combine to average 23.0 points in just 42.9 minutes per game on 59.8% shooting.
As impressive as the Bobcats have been against conference competition, they lost by more than 20 points in their only two games this season against Power Six foes. They had a 30-point defeat against Oregon in November and fell 85-64 to Arizona on December 20.
They also got creamed by 35 points in the Round of 64 last year against Texas Tech and will hope that they aren't out of their depth this time around.
Montana State vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis
The Wildcats are 20th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking 52nd on offense. Despite being better on the defensive side of the court, they rank 40th in the country in adjusted tempo which has led to them averaging 75.5 ppg against Division 1 foes.
The Bobcats play at a much slower pace (220th in adjusted tempo) while averaging just 71.0 ppg versus D1 competition. That said, they are efficient and shoot 52.4% from inside the arc. The low amount of 3-pointers they take also means that there tends to be less variance in their offensive production.
Montana State gets to the free-throw line at the third-highest rate in the country, but the Wildcats are also a Top-50 team in free throws per possession. Given that they both also shoot very well from the charity stripe and foul at a fairly high rate, it's quite easy to expect the points to pile up in this one.
Montana State vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Bobcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Montana State vs. Kansas State.
Montana State vs Kansas State game info
| Region: | East |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Friday, March 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Montana State vs Kansas State key injuries
