The opening weekend of the SEC basketball slate gives us a terrific matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Alabama Crimson Tide as the teams meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
Jayden Quaintance has added even more punch to a strong Wildcat defense, but the offense is still trying to figure things out. That’s not a concern for the Crimson Tide, who fire at will from deep and push the tempo at a breakneck pace to make up for a lack of defense and rebounding prowess.
Read on for my Kentucky vs Alabama predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, January 3.
Kentucky vs Alabama prediction
Kentucky vs Alabama best bet: Alabama -5 (-110)
The Kentucky Wildcats struggled with the Alabama Crimson Tide last year. Three meetings, and three defeats. All by at least five points, and all in games where the Tide dropped at least 96 points.
Mark Pope went out and specifically looked to improve his defense in the transfer market, and did so. The Wildcats rank 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 21st in eFG%, and 22nd in 3-pt% defense.
But the offense has suffered as a result. The Wildcats lack any kind of consistent outside shooting, sitting at a 33.7% make rate on the year. Collin Chandler is making 39.3% of his threes, but in his last three games vs. Quad 1 opponents, he’s made just two of 10.
While Jasper Johnson and Trent Noah also sit above 37.2% from deep, neither has been a consistent threat. And scoring at the rim won’t be easy, not with Aiden Sherrell protecting it. Add in the fact that this offense looks anemic without Jaland Lowe on the floor, and I’ve got concerns about them keeping up with the Tide.
Improved defense or not, you can only hope to slow down this Crimson Tide attack. They rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency, commit the fourth-fewest turnovers in the country, and finish well inside the arc.
And as always, they’re looking to run and gun. The Tide sit third in 3-pt rate, hitting at a clip of 35.8%, and play at a Top 20 adjusted tempo.
That tempo and the raucous atmosphere at Coleman Coliseum will be too much for the Wildcats. This is a rough spot to play, just your second true road contest of the year, and they’ll yet again fall behind double-digits when they have another of their characteristic long scoring droughts.
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Kentucky vs Alabama same-game parlay
The Wildcats drop dimes at a high clip, sitting 33rd with a 60.4% assist rate. Denzel Aberdeen is a key part of that, with at least three assists in six of his last eight games.
The elevated tempo will lead to a high number of possessions, and Kentucky’s dominance on the glass should allow Aberdeen to get opportunities to create in transition.
Mouhamed Dioubate is heading back to Tuscaloosa after two seasons with the Tide, and will want to perform well. And he can do so by punishing an Alabama team that ranks 291st in defensive rebound rate.
He is second in defensive rebound rate for the Wildcats and third in offensive rebound rate. He has 11 offensive boards in his last three games and will get plenty of opportunities to attack the glass in a game that should see plenty of possessions for both teams.
Kentucky vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama -5
- Mouhamed Dioubate Over 7.5 rebounds
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 2.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: High tide
Aden Holloway is shooting 44% from outside the arc and has connected on 12 of 26 attempts in his last three games. The Wildcats have been prone to allowing high-quality looks from outside, and Holloway doesn’t need much space to let fly. I like him to hit a trio of treys for the sixth time in his last seven appearances.
Kentucky vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama -5
- Mouhamed Dioubate Over 7.5 rebounds
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 2.5 assists
- Aden Holloway Over 2.5 threes
Kentucky vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Kentucky +5 | Alabama -5
- Moneyline: Kentucky +180 | Alabama -225
- Over/Under: Over 175.5 | Under 175.5
Kentucky vs Alabama betting trend to know
Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 25 of their last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Alabama.
How to watch Kentucky vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Alabama key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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