March Madness picks tip-off on tonight with a pair of First Four games in Dayton, Ohio. The second matchup will take place between the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs as they battle for the right to earn the No. 11 seed and face Iowa State in the Round of 64.
This will be an intriguing showdown between an elite defensive team in the Bulldogs and the highly-efficient offense of the Panthers.
March Madness odds opened with the Bulldogs as 1.5-point favorites before ticking up to -2.5 with the Over/Under sitting at 133.5. Check out my college basketball picks for Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi below.
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh best odds
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a significantly worse record than the Pittsburgh Panthers in conference play, going just 8-10 against SEC opponents compared to the Panthers' 14-6 mark in ACC play.
However, that was due to an ugly start for the Bulldogs, who lost six of their first seven conference games before turning things around and they fared better against non-conference foes. In fact, they knocked off Marquette and TCU earlier in the season with both of those programs ending up as high seeds in the NCAA Tourney.
Meanwhile, the Panthers dropped three consecutive games at the start of the season to West Virginia, Michigan, and VCU and also lost to a middling SEC squad in Vanderbilt in December.
As efficient as the Panthers' offense has looked at times this season, we've seen them shut down by big and athletic teams many times before.
Pitt is very efficient at running the pick-and-roll and runs it at a very high frequency but the Bulldogs are 28th in the country at defending the pick-and-roll, according to ShotQualityBets.
The Panthers also rarely attack the rim and settle for outside jumpers with 3-point attempts making up a whopping 44.1% of their shots. That's bad news against an MSU team that holds opponents to just 30.8% shooting from beyond the arc.
To be fair, the Bulldogs also shoot poorly from long range themselves but they take most of their shots closer to the rim where Pittsburgh is vulnerable.
The Bulldogs are also dominant on the offensive glass and rank eighth in the country in offensive rebound rate (34.9%), with that number ticking up to 42.2% in their last three games.
They'll generate second chances against a Pitt team that could be missing its starting center and ranks 187th in defensive rebound rate (73.4%), with that dropping to 64.4% in its last three contests.
The Bulldogs should be able to slow this game down to a crawl where their physicality will give them the edge.
My best bet: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Looking to bet on March Madness action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Get a 25% profit boost on any in-game bet for tonight's First Four matchups at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
B) Get one no-sweat bet on any college basketball wager (March 14-15) at FanDuel! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best March Madness promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh spread analysis
It wasn't long ago that Pitt was looking like a lock for the NCAA Tournament and had been a massive moneymaker for bettors. By the middle of February, the Panthers had gone 17-4 straight up and 18-3 against the spread in their previous 21 games.
Since then, they've gone just 3-4 SU and ATS and most recently got smashed 96-69 by Duke in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
The Bulldogs are also coming off a lopsided loss to their eventual conference tournament champions after getting creamed 72-49 by Alabama last Friday.
It's been a tough stretch for the Bulldogs who haven't covered the spread in their previous four games. They lost their regular-season finale to Vanderbilt and barely snuck by a Florida team missing its best player in the second round of the SEC tourney.
MSU has been locking down opponents and is sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Bulldogs have been brutal on the other end of the floor, ranking just 164th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Panthers are the complete opposite and are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 142nd on defense.
Pitt has four double-digit scorers led by All-ACC selections Jamarius Burton (15.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game) and Blake Hinson (15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg). Starting center Fede Federiko (7.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.7 bpg) will be a game-time decision after hurting his knee against Georgia Tech last week and playing limited minutes vs. Duke.
The Bulldogs have just double-digit scorer: big man Tolu Smith, who averages 15.8 ppg and 8.5 rpg while shooting 57.6% from the field.
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh Over/Under analysis
The Bulldogs are eighth in the country in scoring defense and limits Div 1 foes to just 61 ppg. That said, they also rank outside the Top 300 in scoring with 65.9 ppg thanks to their atrocious shooting (46.9 effective field goal percentage) and an adjusted tempo that ranks just 334th in the country.
Despite that sluggish, low-scoring style, the Over has gone 7-2 in their last nine games. The Over has also gone 6-1 in Pitt's previous seven contests although that's to be expected when you combine its potent offense with a vulnerable defense.
The Panthers are averaging 76.1 ppg against Div 1 foes but have also allowed 75 points or more in eight of their last 10 games. That said, they play at a middling tempo (174th in adjusted tempo) and lack the ball pressure to force MSU into playing a faster-paced contest.
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh.
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh game info
| Region: | First Four |
| Location: | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 14, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TruTV |
Mississippi State vs Pittsburgh key injuries
