Kent State vs Indiana Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Hoosiers Offense Runs Through Jackson-Davis

The Indiana Hoosiers will try to get back on track after a rough finish to the season when they take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in a first-round of our March Madness picks on Friday.

March Madness odds have the No. 4 Hoosiers penned as favorites for this contest, but they have gone just 4-4 in their last eight games and were knocked out of the Big Ten Tournament by Penn State. Meanwhile, the Golden Flashes (28-6) earned their automatic bid and a No. 13 seed by beating the Toledo Rockets in the final of the MAC Tournament.

Even if the Hoosiers have been struggling as of late, they’ll undoubtedly have the best player on the court in Trayce Jackson-Davis. We’ll talk about what he’ll do on Friday in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Kent State vs. Indiana on March 17.

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Kent State vs Indiana picks and predictions

While he has been a major contributor for the Indiana Hoosiers since his freshman year, Jackson-Davis is having his best season ever as a senior. The six-foot-nine forward is averaging 20.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game and is shooting the ball at 57.8% from the field. Whether or not he succeeds in the NBA, Jackson-Davis has made his mark at Indiana.

Even as the Hoosiers have floundered over the past month, Jackson-Davis has remained a steady contributor. He has scored 23 points or more in seven of his last nine games, and 19+ points in eight of those contests. Jackson-Davis has managed to put up these numbers even against some of the best defensive teams in the country during Big Ten play.

When Jackson-Davis has had any trouble scoring at all, it has come against teams like Purdue who boast elite big men like Zach Edey. Luckily for the Hoosiers, that won’t be a problem against the Kent State Golden Flashes on Friday.

If the underdogs have one glaring issue heading into this contest, it’s the lack of size that they can bring to the table to defend Jackson-Davis.

Senior forward Miryne Thomas will likely get the bulk of the work against the Indiana star. At 6-foot-8 and 215 pounds, he’s still giving up an inch and 30 pounds to Jackson-Davis.

And it only gets worse when you look at Kent State’s depth.

Sophomore Voncameron Davis is the only other forward who plays over 20 minutes per game for the Golden Flashes, and he comes in at 6-foot-5. We might see more of Chris Payton (6-foot-7) and sophomore center Cli’Ron Hornbeak (6-foot-9), though none of these players have the athleticism and physicality that Jackson-Davis brings to the table.

That means we can expect Indiana to run the offense through Jackson-Davis, possibly even more than it normally does. The undersized Kent State front court may have to send him to the line frequently just to attempt to contain him, which will pad his stat line even further.

Considering all of this, I’m looking to back Jackson-Davis on his points prop. 

My best bet: Trayce Jackson-Davis Over 21.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Kent State vs Indiana spread analysis

The Golden Flashes are 21-10-1 against the spread on the season, while Indiana is a more pedestrian 15-17-1 ATS. 

I’ve already talked about how Jackson-Davis will play a key role in the Indiana offense, and he's likely the biggest advantage the Hoosiers have in this game. That’s good for Indiana, as the Golden Flashes otherwise match up fairly well here.

Kent State has won 10 of its last 11 games and can play excellent defense even against elite competition. While the Golden Flashes lost to the likes of Charleston, Houston, and Gonzaga, all three of those games were decided by seven points or less.

I didn’t play the spread as my best bet because I think the number is pretty close. Kent State has shown itself to be a worthy opponent for good teams, and Indiana is struggling right now.

My tentative pick is Kent State +4.5, though given the uncertainty here, I think betting the Golden Flashes on the moneyline at +165 or better is the wise wager. 

Kent State vs Indiana Over/Under analysis

The total on tonight’s game opened at 140.5 points and has stayed relatively stable throughout the week. You can find an Over/Under of 140 or 141 if you look around, but 140.5 remains the consensus number.

Both sides of this matchup are capable of playing excellent defense, and neither particularly looks to push the pace. Indiana has gone to the Over in five of its last six, while Kent State has hit the Over four times in five games.

Both teams also play to slightly higher totals than this Over/Under suggests. The Golden Flashes are averaging 141.4 points per game, while the Hoosiers are slightly higher at 143.8. Much of the data suggests that we should be playing the Over, and I think the matchup favors it as well. 

Jackson-Davis should be able to get some cheap buckets along with some free (and time-saving) points for Indiana from the free-throw line. In a game that already leans to the Over slightly, my expectation for how the game will play out gives me much more confidence in making the bet.

However, I’d recommend staying off this number if it even gets as high as 142.5.

Kent State vs Indiana betting trend to know

Jackson-Davis has scored at least 24 points in each of his last four games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kent State vs. Indiana.

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