Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Bulldogs Jump on the Antelopes Early

The No. 14 seed Grand Canyon Antelopes take on the No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday night, and we've got your March Madness picks.

The Bulldogs are a title contender, sitting just outside the Top 5 on the March Madness odds board, and haven’t missed the NCAA Tourney this century while the Lopes are making their second tournament appearance after losing in the Round of 64 in 2021.

Oddsmakers don't expect them to advance this year either with college basketball betting lines opening with the Zags as 15.5-point favorites and the Over/Under at 156.5. Here are my best free Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga college basketball picks and predictions for March 17.

Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga best odds

Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

The Lopes are a slow-paced team with a stingy defense but they've been torched at times this season, and have given up at least 75 points in four of their last six contests. They also had an uneven stretch from January 18 to February 18, where they went 2-7 against the spread and surrendered more than 80 points to Abilene Christian, Stephen F. Austin, Tarleton State, and Utah Tech. 

Now, they face a Bulldogs squad that makes those previously mentioned teams look like Chihuahuas. Gonzaga had some struggles earlier in the season but is still a national title contender that is peaking at the right time. 

The Zags are no stranger to seeing big spreads in front of them but have been covering lately, especially in the first half due to their fast starts. They are on a nine-game winning streak with an average first-half margin of plus-15.4 points per game during that span. 

In six of those victories, they had a lead of at least 13 points at halftime which includes a pair of contests against the Saint Mary's Gaels. Like the Gaels, the Lopes are a slow-paced, defensively focused team that shoots well from beyond the arc, except they aren't quite as good across the board. 

The Lopes won't be able to force the Zags into playing their slower-paced style and will find themselves running against a far more talented and athletic team in the higher elevation in Denver.

They could also have a few nerves early in the game playing on the national stage at a big venue like Ball Arena. Back the Zags on the first-half spread. 

My best bet: Gonzaga first half -8.5 (-110 at bet365)

Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga spread analysis

The Zags entered the season as title contenders and, after some disappointing results, have managed to turn things around. After losing on the road against Saint Mary's on Feb. 4, they've reeled off nine straight wins, which include a pair of revenge victories against the Gaels. 

They impressively throttled the Gaels 77-51 in the WCC Tourney finals last week to claim their 10th conference title in the last 11 years. 

Gonzaga is a fast-paced offensive juggernaut that ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's led by two-time WCC Player of the Year Drew Timme (20.9 points and 7.3 rebounds per game) with Julian Strawther (15.1 ppg on 48/43/78 shooting splits) joining him on the All-Conference team.

Grand Canyon is coming off its first WAC championship and has only been playing Div 1 ball since 2013. The Lopes made the Round of 64 two years ago as a No. 15 seed and lost by 12 points to Iowa.

That said, the starting lineup this year is completely different. Chance McMillian (10.7 ppg, 44.6 3PT%) and Gabe McGlothan (12.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) were backups on that squad and have become key players while Rayshon Harrison leads GCU with 17.7 ppg and 3.6 apg.

The Lopes were tied for fourth in the conference with an 11-7 record during the regular season. However, they caught on fire in the WAC tournament winning four in a row and clobbering Southern Utah 84-66 in the finals.

They've gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games and will need to try to slow this game down, defend at a high level, and knock down shots from beyond the arc if they want to keep things close. 

Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis

The Zags lead the country in scoring with 86.5 ppg against Div 1 foes. They shoot a sizzling 52.2% from the floor and love to push the pace ranking 33rd in the country in average length of possession.

However, they struggled on defense earlier this season and are 76th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have tightened up on their own end over the past few weeks limiting foes to just 65.8 ppg in their last five games. 

Grand Canyon holds Div 1 foes to a modest 68.7 ppg but hasn't faced an opponent with the weapons that the Zags possess. The Lopes rank near the bottom of the country in opponent turnover rate and sit outside the Top 200 in defensive rebound rate, which will make it very tough for them to disrupt this highly-efficient Gonzaga attack.

If they want to pull off the upset, they'll need to rely on their sharp shooting from beyond the arc. The Lopes are just 171st in 2-point percentage (50.5%) but rank 22nd in 3-point percentage (37.6%).

If they have success from deep against a Zags team that ranks 250th in opponent 3-point percentage (35%) they could push this contest above the total.

Grand Canyon vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Grand Canyon's last six neutral site games while going 8-2 in Gonzaga's previous 10 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Gonzaga.

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