Upsets are a staple of March Madness, and there's no greater upset than a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed.
Below, we'll examine the NCAA men's basketball tournament history of No. 1 vs. No. 16 games.
How many times has a 16-seed beaten a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament?
There have been 160 March Madness matchups between No. 1 vs. No. 16 seeds, and the 16-seed has prevailed just twice. Both of those victories have come rather recently.
The first school to pull off the Holy Grail of upsets was UMBC (+2500 moneyline) in 2018. UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) took down Virginia in an all-time stunner.
1 vs. 16. An incredible upset. A Twitter legend.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 15, 2018
UMBC vs. UVA: Bracket Busted brings you four unique perspectives on @UMBCAthletics’ stunning upset over Virginia, Monday on CBS Sports Network. pic.twitter.com/x6vQtFKrqi
The second school to pull off the upset-of-all-upsets was Fairleigh Dickinson (+2100), which toppled 1-seeded Purdue in 2023.
Fairleigh Dickinson University basketball coach Tobin Anderson stops by the TODAY plaza to talk about his team’s major upset during March Madness when they defeated No. 1 seed Purdue. pic.twitter.com/nrNfxN3App
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) March 20, 2023
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What are the odds that a No. 16 seed beats a No. 1 seed in 2026?
All four top seeds won in the first round in 2025. Here's a look at the top seeds and their first-round moneyline odds for the 2026 tournament:
| No. 1 Seed | No. 16 Seed | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils (East) |
 Siena Saints |
-29.5 | -10000 |
 Arizona Wildcats (West) |
 LIU Sharks |
-31.5 | -10000 |
 Michigan Wolverines (Midwest) |
TBD | TBD | TBD |
 Florida Gators (South) |
TBD | TBD | TBD |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
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How rare is it for a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed?
The prevailing mindset among most college basketball junkies up until 2018 was that they would go their entire lives without witnessing a No. 16 seed upset a No. 1 seed. After all, those 16-seeds were 0-135 heading into the UMBC vs. Virginia game.
Not only did UMBC upset Virginia on March 16, 2018, but they also blew out the Cavaliers by a score of 74-54. UMBC was a +20.5 underdog heading into the game.
Prior to the UMBC upset of Virginia, the closest call in March Madness history came in 1989. Princeton lost to top-seeded Georgetown by just a point, 50-49. This was a Georgetown team that featured five future NBA players, including Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo.
