Upsets are a staple of March Madness, and there's no greater upset than a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed.
Below, we'll examine the NCAA men's basketball tournament history of No. 1 vs. No. 16 games.
How many times has a No. 16 seed beaten a No. 1 seed during March Madness?
There have been 160 No. 1/No. 16 games in the NCAA men's basketball tournament, and a 16-seed prevailed just twice. Both of those 16-seed wins have come rather recently.
The first school to pull off the Holy Grail of upsets was UMBC (+2500) in 2018. UMBC (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) took down Virginia in an all-time stunner.
1 vs. 16. An incredible upset. A Twitter legend.
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 15, 2018
UMBC vs. UVA: Bracket Busted brings you four unique perspectives on @UMBCAthletics’ stunning upset over Virginia, Monday on CBS Sports Network. pic.twitter.com/x6vQtFKrqi
UMBC is back in the tournament this year, for the first time since that magical upset of Virginia eight years ago.
The second school to pull off the upset-of-all-upsets was Fairleigh Dickinson (+2100), which took down top-seeded Purdue in 2023.
Fairleigh Dickinson University basketball coach Tobin Anderson stops by the TODAY plaza to talk about his team’s major upset during March Madness when they defeated No. 1 seed Purdue. pic.twitter.com/nrNfxN3App
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) March 20, 2023
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
What are the odds that a No. 16 seed beats a No. 1 seed in 2026?
All four No. 1 seeds won in the first round last year. Here's a look at their moneyline odds heading into their respective first-round games:
| No. 1 | No. 16 | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils |
 Siena Saints |
-28.5 | +350 |
 Arizona Wildcats |
 LIU Brooklyn Sharks |
-30.5 | +350 |
 Michigan Wolverines |
 Howard Bison |
-31 | +350 |
 Florida Gators |
 Prairie View A&M Panthers |
-35.5 | +3300 |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Popular March Madness markets
- March Madness odds
- March Madness picks
- Women's March Madness odds
- March Madness Final Four odds
- March Madness MVP odds
- March Madness betting sites
How rare is it for a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed?
The prevailing mindset among most college basketball junkies up until 2018 was that they would go their entire lives without witnessing a 16 seed upsetting a 1 seed. After all, 16 seeds were 0-135 heading into the UMBC vs. Virginia game.
Not only did UMBC upset Virginia on March 16, 2018, but they also blew out the Cavaliers by a score of 74-54. UMBC was a +20.5 underdog heading into the game.
Before the UMBC upset of Virginia, the closest call in March Madness history came in 1989. Princeton lost to top-seeded Georgetown by just a point, 50-49. This was a Georgetown team that featured five future NBA players, including Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo.
