The Big Ten has dominated the Big Dance, but one contender will hear the music stop when the Iowa Hawkeyes face the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Elite Eight.
Unlike most March Madness matchups, there are few unknowns with these rivals.
My Iowa vs. Illinois props break down their January meeting and the programs’ current form, highlighted by Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell.
Here are my top March Madness picks for Saturday, March 28.
Iowa vs Illinois props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Bennett Stirtz |
Over 3.5 assists | -165 |
 Kylan Boswell |
Over 10.5 points | -115 |
| David Mirkovic |
Over 2.5 assists | +115 |
Prop #1: Bennett Stirtz Over 3.5 assists
This assist prop for the Iowa Hawkeyes’ top scorer is a bit juicy, but Bennett Stirtz will be pressured to pass as the focus of this Illinois Fighting Illini defense — specifically on-ball pest Kylan Boswell.
Illinois will want to take the ball out of Stritz’s hands and force Iowa’s other guys to hurt them, much like its defensive approach versus Kingston Flemings and Houston.
Stirtz had four assists in the win over Nebraska and five dimes versus Florida. In the only matchup with the Illini in Big Ten play, he finished with six assists and was limited due to foul trouble.
Player projections lean toward five dimes from the Hawkeyes guard.
Prop #2: Kylan Boswell Over 10.5 points
Speaking of Boswell, he can impact this game on both ends of the floor.
He’s the most active member of a methodical half-court offense, forcing defenders to move with him on cuts to the basket. Defending cutters is a soft spot for the Hawkeyes, as is defending dribble jumpers, another area in which Boswell gets buckets.
Boswell had 17 points in the first meeting with Iowa in January, and while he scored only six points versus UH, he followed that with 12 and 13 points in the tournament's opening week.
His player models sit as high as 13+ points.
Prop #3: David Mirkovic Over 2.5 assists
I bet on Over 2.5 assists from David Mirkovic in the Sweet 16, but he finished with just two dimes in a game where he was more active as a shooter.
I’m going back to the well with this same prop in the Elite Eight, looking at Mirkovic to distribute on the perimeter but also out of the blocks. The Hawkeyes can be exploited by the inside-out game, and the last time Mirkovic faced Iowa, he handed out five helpers.
Both of these teams want to play a slower tempo and live in the halfcourt, unlike the frenzied pressure the Cougars threw at Illinois. That allows for cleaner ball movement and Mirkovic to thrive as a passer.
Before Thursday, he had recorded three or more assists in four straight games. Elite Eight projections also sit between 2.5 and 3.6 dimes, which offers great value to the Over 2.5 at plus-money.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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