All eyes are on Cameron Boozer as the frontrunner for the Naismith Player of the Year leads his No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils into the NCAA Tournament.
First up is a Round of 64 clash with the No. 16 seed Siena Saints. My Cameron Boozer player props and March Madness picks for Thursday, March 19 tell you why Boozer is in for a big day.
Cameron Boozer best bet vs Siena: Over 22.5 points (-110)
Cameron Boozer dominated his way to an average of 22.5 ppg, and the books have decided to set his points prop right at that average. We should expect Boozer to have an above-average game vs. an overmatched Siena Saints squad.
The Duke Blue Devils have a high team total of 82.5 and should find room to work inside against a Saints defense ranking 211th in near-proximity attempt rate allowed (Haslametrics).
The Blue Devils will likely be without two starters in point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba. Those are no small losses as they combine for 19.2 ppg while ranking third (Ngongba) and fourth (Foster) on the team in OBPR (combined +8.99).
Enter Boozer to fill the scoring void.
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Cameron Boozer same-game parlay
Boozer’s assist rate may see the biggest bump of any statistical category due to the absence of Foster (2.8 assists per game) and Ngongba (1.9). We saw that play out in the ACC Tournament, when he averaged 5.7 assists without his two starting teammates.
Passing may be the future lottery pick’s best attribute in the eyes of NBA scouts, and his 26.4% assist rate should shine as he leads the offensive attack.
Siena has a quality defense on paper for a 16 seed, but those numbers were accrued against the No. 347 strength of schedule. The Saints surrendered 81 points to Indiana in their lone game against a Power Conference opponent and, therefore, are unlikely to stop the Boozer train.
Fellow freshman Dame Sarr averaged 32.7 minutes per game in the ACC Tournament — a big uptick from his season-long figure (22.9).
He averages 6.1 3-point attempts per 40 minutes, and proved a willing shooter in Charlotte despite going 2-for-13 from behind the arc.
If he keeps up that volume — which is likely given the absences around him — he stands a good chance of canning a few triples to space the floor for Boozer.
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