Kentucky vs Louisville Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Run Wild in First Half

The Kentucky Wildcats will seek to inflict further misery on their biggest rivals when they travel an hour west to face the Louisville Cardinals. Our latest college basketball odds have the Wildcats penned as overwhelming favorites.

The Wildcats are fresh off a thrilling win over North Carolina, defeating the Tar Heels by four points on a neutral court. Their second Top 10 win of the non-conference sees them now ranked ninth, and John Calipari’s new-look offense is free-flowing and putting up points.

His former assistant is in charge of the Louisville program, and it’s not a matter of if but when he will be relieved of his coaching duties. Kenny Payne’s fallen out hard with the fans, having lost 34 of his 43 games as head coach, and the crowd at the KFC Yum Center on Thursday is expected to have an unfamiliar blue hue to it.

Can Louisville and Payne pull off a miracle, or will the Wildcats put the final nail in the coffin? We discuss that and more in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kentucky vs Louisville.

Kentucky vs Louisville best odds

Kentucky vs Louisville picks and predictions

The storylines surrounding this game make for compelling drama, but the action on the court won’t offer much. However, there’s a prevailing feeling permeating throughout both fan bases that John Calipari won’t want to run up the score on his former assistant.

And for that reason, we’re going to keep things simple and skip the spread for the game to avoid a potential backdoor cover by the Lousiville Cardinals. Instead, we’ll bank on the Kentucky Wildcats to win the first half by eight or more points.

Many are pointing to Louisville’s 3-point defense as a possible reason they cover the spread. But dig deeper into the numbers, and you’ll see the Cardinals have been fortunate to face some of the worst outside shooting teams in the nation.

This defense will be tested heavily by Kentucky. Calipari’s offense is firing at will and from range, making nearly 41% of their efforts from outside the arc. Three different players are shooting 42.6% or better from distance with at least 40 attempts, paced by Reed Sheppard and his ridiculous 57.1% mark.

But there’s no debate as to whether or not Louisville’s interior defense is due for regression. That’s because it’s awful. Teams at times have looked like they were running layup drills against the Cardinals.

It’s a key reason why opponents are shooting 68.9% on close shots, one of the worst marks in college basketball. That’s great news for the Wildcats, who are making better than 63% of their efforts at or near the rim.

The Wildcats are outstanding at forcing turnovers, run an extremely effective offense, and are lethal when they can get out and run in transition. Louisville is turning the ball over far too often, ranking 292nd in offensive effective FG% and 305th in 3-point shooting percentage.

Louisville isn’t set up to take advantage of Kentucky’s weaknesses, and its areas of concern feed directly into Kentucky’s strengths. I’m like many around the two programs who believe Calipari will call off the dogs at some point in the second half, but I fully expect the Wildcats to be ahead by double digits at halftime.

Bet365 has the best price available, with -115 odds for the Wildcats to cover the -7.5 first-half spread. Grab it before the number shifts or the juice goes up, as it’s listed at -120 across other books. 

My best bet: Kentucky 1H -7.5 (-115 at bet365)

Kentucky vs Louisville same-game parlay

Kentucky 1H -7.5
Kentucky 1H team total Over 40.5
Lousiville 1H team total Under 32.5

D.J. Wagner Over 19.5 PRA

+500 at DraftKings

For our same-game parlay, we’re moving to DraftKings and building a bit on our first-half spread as we look at the respective team totals for Kentucky and Louisville.

The Wildcats have scored 37 or more points before halftime in nine of their 10 games so far. I’m anticipating a similar tempo this evening, with the Wildcats putting up some of their best offensive numbers of any first half and pushing their 1H team total Over to 23-12 in their last 35 games.

In addition, we’re taking Louisville to score fewer than 33 first-half points. This is a mark the Cardinals have achieved just three times before halftime. This will feel like a road game for them, and if the Wildcats jump out early as I expect them to, it will be tough for Louisville to keep up against a defense ranked 34th in block rate and 56th in adjusted defensive FG%.

Finally, we’re backing D.J. Wagner to ball out against his grandfather’s former team. He was recruited heavily by Louisville and many expected him to attend there, but Wagner eventually chose to play for his father’s old coach. He had a statline of 14/6/5 against UNC and he’ll be heavily involved again tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kentucky vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread opened between -12.5 and -13.5 and quickly began moving in multiple directions. On Thursday morning, it is listed at either -13.5 or -14.5, but it reached as high as -15 at a few places before dipping back down.

If this were any other game, I’d take Kentucky to cover and not think twice. However, there is a real concern that Calipari could call off the dogs in the second half to spare someone who was on his staff at Kentucky for many years.

Additionally, the Cardinals have been double-digit dogs twice this season and covered both times. That’s why I’m staying away from the full-game spread to avoid getting hit by a backdoor cover.

As for the total, it also quickly moved. After opening at 158.5, the public moved it down to 155.5 across the board. That’s the highest total of any game Louisville has participated in this season, and the Under is 4-0 in its last four games.

This is another one I’m avoiding. I would’ve taken the Under along with the public, but Kentucky plays at such a fast pace that it’ll come down to whether Louisville can do its part. The Cardinals don’t shoot well at all from downtown, and they’ll need an outlier performance like they had against Pepperdine at the weekend.

For those who care about trends, the Kentucky team total Over might be the way to go. The Over is 8-2 in the Wildcats first 10 games this season, and the Over is also 24-10 in their last 34 games. 

Kentucky vs Louisville betting trend to know

Louisville has covered the spread just once in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Louisville.

Kentucky vs Louisville game info

Kentucky vs Louisville key injuries

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