The Purdue Boilermakers are 7-0 and ranked in the Top 5 in every single ranking system. Yet, the Iowa Hawkeyes are also 7-0 and have received little fanfare.
Purdue has already knocked off North Carolina, Villanova, and Florida State, but both teams deserve recognition at this point in time. Does Iowa have what it takes to knock off Purdue, on the road, in the first Big Ten Conference game?
Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Purdue on Friday, December 3.
Iowa vs Purdue odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Purdue opened as an 11-point favorite and has now been bet up to 11.5 across the board. Meanwhile, the total opened at 159 and has elevated to as high as 161.5 at some outlets. However, there are still spots with a 159.5 hanging. Make sure to shop around!
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Iowa vs Purdue predictions
Predictions made on 12/3/2021 at 9:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa vs Purdue game info
• Location: Mackay Arena, West Lafayette, IN
• Date: Friday, December 3, 2021
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BTN
Iowa at Purdue betting preview
Injuries
Iowa: No injuries to report.
Purdue: Brian Waddell F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boilermakers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Purdue.
Iowa vs Purdue picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
I’ll admit it. It’s hard to take a -11.5 against a team that hasn’t lost all season. Purdue is an excellent ball club and they’ve beaten some really good teams by double digits, but in principle, it’s hard to agree with a line that big in a conference game between two teams that are undefeated.
Iowa has one of the best offenses in the nation according to KenPom, with an adjusted efficiency on offense of 118. That’s good for third in the nation. The Hawkeyes also have an effective field goal percentage of 58.3% and have turned the ball over just 11.5% of the time.
When you’re able to get a whole bunch of shots up without turning the ball over, good things happen. Iowa is shooting 39.6% from three, 57.6% from inside the arc, and 81% from the foul line, all while grabbing 36.5% of offensive rebounds.
Iowa can stick around offensively against anyone in the nation. Yes, even Purdue. However, Purdue is still the better offense. The Boilermakers are first in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, and also effective field goal percentage, at 63.6%.
Purdue has dominated the offensive glass with center Zach Edey, who is averaging 16.9 points and 7.1 rebounds. Meanwhile, Trevion Williams has also dominated the glass with 7.4 rebounds per game. But it hasn’t been just rebounding for Purdue on the offensive end.
The Boilermakers are hitting 44.2% from downtown and 61.7% from inside the arc. Both of those numbers are good for second in the nation.
It’s going to be a showdown between two of the best offenses in the nation. It’s harder to predict shooting in comparison to defense, but overall, I’m going to believe that Iowa can stick around offensively.
Prediction: Iowa +11.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
We’ve got two of the best offenses in the nation matching up against one another. You’d like to think that there will be plenty of scoring in this game. The total is sitting at 159, meaning you would need both teams to score 80 points to cover this.
And to be honest, I think this is completely doable. Iowa’s opponents have taken 18.3 seconds per possession, which is a long time. But overall, these two teams are so efficient on the offensive end that I still like the over to hit.
Prediction: Over 159.5 (-110)
Best bet
We’re being spotted 11.5 points on an undefeated team that is coming off a road win against Virginia. I can’t back away from this. I know Purdue is one of the best teams in the nation, but when Iowa’s offense gets rolling, it can also be among the elite.
If Iowa can get past Virginia and their crowd, it shouldn’t have a problem performing at Purdue.
Even if Iowa losses by double-digits, we can still win our bet. Give me Iowa +11.5.
Pick: Iowa +11.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Iowa vs. Purdue picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
