Iowa vs LSU Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Elite 8 Matchup

Caitlin Clark may get the credit for Iowa's success but she'll have to lean on her teammates if the Hawkeyes want to get revenge against LSU. We break down their chances in our Women's March Madness betting picks below.

Apr 1, 2024 • 15:52 ET • 4 min read
Caitlin Clark Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tonight, the No. 3-seeded LSU Tigers and No. 1-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes take to the hardwood in a highly-anticipated Elite Eight rematch of their 2023 Women’s March Madness final.

Reigning 2023 champ LSU is a short
Women’s March Madness odds underdog when the 2023 finalists meet — and tonight’s matchup has the makings to be an instant classic. 

Join me as I break this one down with some free March Madness picks for LSU vs. Iowa on Monday, April 1. 

Iowa vs LSU best odds

Iowa Iowa Hawkeyes  LSU LSU Tigers
-2 (-110) Spread +2 (-110)
-130 Moneyline +110
Over 168.5 (-110) Total Under 168.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 1.

Iowa vs LSU picks and predictions

Tonight’s highly anticipated battle between No. 1 Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 3 LSU Tigers is what the people want and the competition between Iowa guard Caitlin Clark and LSU forward Angel Reese is the main reason why.

Clark is the all-time leading scorer and leads the nation in scoring and assists. The Lady Hawkeyes are the best 3-point shooting team nationally and have won nine straight behind the nation's top-scoring offense.

Reese is a double-double phenom, pulling down the nation's second-most boards per game. The Bayou Barbie is a tremendous defender and shot blocker, and aggressively steals balls in the lane while adding nearly 19 points per night.

While these two awesome hoopers grab most of the headlines, the group with the more experienced supporting cast playing together in big ball games will win this game, and that program will be Iowa.

Seniors Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall started last year's final and returned to Iowa to run it back with Clark. The two have been terrific this season but shot poorly in their second-round victory over West Virginia. 

Ponytail Pete trusted her teammates anyway in their next matchup against Colorado and they shot a combined 6-for-9 from downtown in their 21-point win. It’s the trust that only comes from years of playing together, and Clark must trust her teammates tonight. They'll have to knock down shots to beat the Tigers tonight.

LSU isn’t running things back with the same group. They added a pair of tremendous players from the transfer portal; Aneesah Morrow has flourished while Hailey Van Lith has struggled to find her stroke in a new position. That lack of continuity and Van Lith’s poor shooting from downtown has cost the Tigers this season.

This Elite Eight matchup should be a war. LSU is an aggressive defending team with a stop unit that has held shooters to 29% from downtown this season. They're also awesome rebounders on both ends of the floor and good scorers in the paint.

Still, they meet a Hawkeyes team with a fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio while leading the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Clark, Martin, and Marshall returned together to run it back and this was the matchup they wanted.

They're in for a tough battle, but the Lady Hawkeyes can rebound with LSU and if Martin and Marshall make enough shots beyond the arc, Iowa will be booking its spot in the Final Four.

My best bet: Iowa moneyline (-130 at Pinnacle)

Caitlin Clark Iowa vs LSU props

Caitlin Clark is the all-time leading scorer in college basketball history and is known for her long-distance logo threes. She broke Kelsey Plum’s all-time scoring mark with a logo three bomb, but she’ll need Marshall and Martin to score to win this game and her own numbers may take a hit as a result.

Ponytail Pete isn’t going to outscore LSU on her own. Over the last few weeks, Iowa has had an easier time winning games when Clark becomes more of a facilitator. She's still consistently shooting 10+ times from downtown but has dropped 10+ dimes in four of her past five.

The reality is that Clark has struggled from downtown and feeding her teammates is how Iowa has been winning games. The career 37% shooter has dipped below that mark in seven of her last eight matchups and faces a Tigers stop unit that has allowed a robust 29% from beyond the arc this season. 

As tempting as her assist prop is (9.5), she failed to clear 4.5 triples in four of her last six and has struggled from downtown over the past eight. LSU plays fantastic 3-point defense and it won't be easy for Clark to get shots off with Flau’Jae Johnson in her grill for 40 minutes. 

She'll get her buckets but I suspect she won't clear this number tonight. 

Caitlin Clark prop: Under 4.5 made threes (+105 at Caesars)

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Iowa vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Money has come in on Iowa, driving the opener from 1.5 (-115) to a consensus -2 (-110).

  • The public watching LSU struggle against UCLA is likely the culprit, but this game should be close either way.

  • The total opened at 168.5, the highest on the board by a wide margin. It hasn’t budged either, but it could rise slightly as the day progresses.

  • We have two big-scoring teams tonight, but that is a ton of points and an in-game wager waiting to happen. 

Iowa vs LSU betting trend to know

Iowa has won nine games in a row. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. LSU.

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Iowa vs LSU game info

Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Date: Monday, April 1, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET

Iowa vs LSU key injuries

Iowa: Molly Davis G (Doubtful).
LSU: No key injuries to report.

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