Iowa vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Devils Too Thorough on D

Duke's defense has been a standout early in this young season, and with a stellar freshman class getting better by the game, the Blue Devils should only get stingier. See why our college basketball picks think Iowa won't measure up tonight.

Last Updated: Dec 6, 2022 4:00 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Duke Blue Devils college basketball
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The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Duke Blue Devils in the second contest of the Jimmy V Classic on Tuesday night. The Blue Devils are the No. 15 ranked team in the country under new head coach Jon Scheyer, while the Hawkeyes are just outside the AP Top 25 despite a 7-1 record.

College basketball odds hit the board with Duke installed as a 3-point favorite and the Over/Under at 146.5 for this contest, which will take place at historical Madison Square Garden in New York. Here are my best free Iowa vs. Duke college basketball picks and predictions for December 6. 

Iowa vs Duke best odds

Iowa vs Duke picks and predictions

Iowa has a finely-tuned offense but Duke is more athletic defensively and has a clear advantage when it comes to pure talent and size. The highly-regarded freshmen at Duke are getting better with every game and big men like Kyle Filipowski, Ryan Young, and Dereck Lively II should thrive down low.

Keep in mind that Iowa was pushed around in the paint and had a minus-12 rebounding margin against TCU when they lost by 13 points two weeks ago. The Blue Devils are seventh in the nation in rebounding rate, which should allow them to dominate inside, and their strong perimeter defense will make it very tough for Iowa's shooters to get into a rhythm on the outside.

I'll back the team with superior defense, and with the Blue Devils knocking down 77.3% of their free throws I like them to cover this short spread.

My best bet: Duke -2.5 (-110 at SIA)

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Iowa vs Duke spread analysis

The Hawkeyes fell out of the Top 25 after getting dismantled by TCU in the finals of the Emerald Coast Classic. They bounced back with a 81-65 home win against Georgia Tech last week but, while they received 70 votes in the latest poll, it wasn't enough to crack the rankings. 

Iowa is third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom but was locked down by the Horned Frogs, who limited them to 43% shooting (including just 3-17 from beyond the arc) and forced 15 turnovers.

The Hawkeyes averaged just 8.3 turnovers per game in their other six games and they still rank sixth in the nation in scoring with 86.4 points per game. 

Iowa has a lineup loaded with experience, with four upperclassmen scoring in double-digits. Forward Kris Murray is averaging 21 ppg and 10.6 rpg while shooting 51/41/85 to help replace the productivity of departed All-American brother Keegan, now in the NBA. 

The Blue Devils began the Scheyer era with a close loss to the defending national champions Kansas. They proceeded to win four games in a row before getting stomped 75-56 by No. 4 Purdue in the Phil Knight Legacy championship game. They bounced back from that defeat with comfortable home wins against Ohio State and Boston College.

Duke had one of the best recruiting classes ever after signing three of the top four recruits in the country (Dariq Whitehead, Lively, and Filipowski) according to 247sports, along with two other Top-30 recruits in Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor. 

Injuries to Whitehead and Lively in the summer have slowed down their development, but they have been showing improvement lately, while Filipowski immediately became their best player with 15.2 ppg and 9.3 rpg.

The Blue Devils have a deep and young lineup and have been reliant on three upperclassmen for leadership, none more important than point guard Jeremy Roach, who is averaging 12.2 ppg and 3.6 apg in 32.8 mpg.

Iowa vs Duke Over/Under analysis

Duke is talented but raw on offense and has been more consistent on the defensive end of the floor where the Blue Devils hold foes to 58.7 ppg — the 18th-lowest number in the country.

They've been especially effective at contesting outside shots, limiting foes to a 3-point percentage of just 26.7%.  That combined with the slower tempo they've been playing at and their inside-outside style has resulted in Unders going 7-3 for them this season. 

The Hawkeyes push the ball at a fast tempo on offense but rank outside the Top 300 when it comes to average possession length on defense. They aren't that aggressive on that end of the floor and, while that means they rarely foul, it also means that opponents can move the ball while probing for openings.

The Under has cashed for three-straight games for the Hawkeyes. While they are more well-known for their high-octane offense, they're limiting foes to a 41.5 FG% while coming off a contest where they held Georgia Tech to 39.1% shooting.

Iowa vs Duke betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the last four neutral site games for both of these teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Duke.

Iowa vs Duke game info

Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
Date: Tuesday, December 6, 2022
Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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