The Georgia Bulldogs have just two wins in their last nine outings, one of which came against the LSU Tigers. Louisiana State is out to erase that mistake when UGA visits the Pete Maravich Assembly Center tonight.
College basketball odds have the Tigers as slim home chalk after suffering a brutal 20-point beatdown from Mississippi State in front of the Baton Rouge faithful this past weekend.
That squash snapped a two-game run for Matt McMahon’s program and has Louisiana State sinking to the bottom half of the SEC with a 2-4 straight up (3-3 against the spread) record in its last six games. However, that chunk of schedule did feature a number of the conference’s top teams.
The Bulldogs are not among the SEC’s elite, going 1-7 SU (2-5 ATS) since beating the Tigers 68-66 at home on January 24.
I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this SEC showdown and give my best college basketball picks for Georgia vs. LSU on February 27.
Georgia vs LSU best odds
Georgia vs LSU picks and predictions
LSU needs an answer after getting blown away by 20 points on its own court this past weekend.
Sure, the Tigers have an excuse with leading scoring Jalen Cook out for that loss to Mississippi State and forward Tyrell Ward going down with a hip injury after only 13 minutes of floor time.
But if Matt McMahon is going to stop his program from backing into the SEC Tournament on a losing skid, he needs to prompt a win from the Tigers tonight. Louisiana State is playing the final of three straight home games before closing out the season with two of three on the road.
This spread opened LSU -3.5 and has now climbed to as high as -5.5 at some sportsbooks, indicating that Cook could be in action tonight. Louisiana State has desperately missed his offense, watching its scoring average drop to 68.7 in the three games with Cook on the sideline.
While the junior guard is listed as a game-time decision, the movement in the spread hints that there’s a good shot he plays. His 15.6 points per game has basically been the difference in LSU’s output during his time off the court.
The Tigers average 80.1 points per home game and face a Georgia defense that sits near the bottom in the SEC. Georgia allows foes to fire at an effective field goal rate off 52.1% on the road while giving up more than 78 points to host teams.
The Bulldogs are a downtick in terms of competition for Louisiana State, when measured against its recent foes. The shorthanded Tigers have tangled with the top half of the conference this month, including some of the tougher defensive programs in the SEC.
Against Mississippi State, LSU went cold from deep despite creating some solid looks from long range. The Tigers finished 3-for-17 from beyond the arc and McMahon said that shrunk the floor for LSU, forcing them to go after a tough MSU interior defense. The Tigers also burned several possessions with 15 turnovers on the night.
With market movement leaning toward Cook’s return, I like Louisiana State to at least put up some points against a weaker defensive foe and go Over its team total. This number sits as low as 78.5 points but is moving up to as high as 80.5 at some books.
Game models have LSU between 77 and 80 points, before adjusting for Cook’s potential return.
My best bet: LSU team total Over 78.5 (-115 at Pinnacle)
Georgia vs LSU same-game parlay
LSU team total Over 79.5
LSU first half moneyline
Jordan Wright Under 1.5 made threes
The Tigers could have Cook back and he’s the stick that stirs the drink for this offense, which has suffered without him in the lineup.
After a 20-point pounding at home, McMahon will have his team fired up for a solid showing in the first 20 minutes.
Wright has hit two or more triples only once in the last eight games and is 7-for-26 since going 3-for-5 at UGA on January 24.
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Georgia vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
The Tigers opened as 3.5-point home chalk Monday afternoon and that line has since swelled to as high as -5.5 as of Tuesday morning. Covers Consensus shows 58% of early picks laying the points with the home side.
Louisiana State has some injury concerns to monitor ahead of this 7 p.m. ET tipoff. According to head coach Matt McMahon, forward Tyrell Ward and guard Jalen Cook are both “day-to-day” and will be assessed in pregame shootaround. Ward (8.6 ppg) injured his hip in the loss to MSU and Cook (15.6 ppg) has sat the past three games with leg soreness.
It appeared like LSU was going to make a late-season push with wins over South Carolina and Kentucky, and was set up for a surge with three straight home games on the schedule. However, the Tigers came out flat against Mississippi State and got blasted by 20 points, dropping LSU to 6-9 ATS inside Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
The Bulldogs have been in a free fall for more than a month. After beating LSU at home and taking Florida to overtime, Georgia hasn’t been competitive with just a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven games. That said, UGA has done its best work on the road and owns a 7-1 ATS mark in true road outings with an average margin of -0.4 as a visitor.
Tonight’s total opened at 154.5 points and has since slimmed to 153.5. Covers Consensus shows a slight lean to the Over with 53% of early picks on a higher-scoring finish.
The Tigers are 13-13 Over/Under on the year, with a 7-8 O/U count at home. They began the month on a four-game Over run but have since gone 1-3 O/U in their last four games heading into tonight.
As for the Bulldogs, they’re 13-14 O/U overall with a 4-4 O/U mark on the road. Georgia is also 4-4 O/U in the eight games since knocking off LSU last month. That 68-66 win stayed Under the closing total of 156.5 points on January 24.
Georgia vs LSU betting trend to know
Louisiana State has gone Over its team total in 10 of the last 18 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgia vs. LSU.
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Georgia vs LSU game info
| Location: | Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Georgia vs LSU key injuries
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