Duke vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Edey, Filipowski Lead Offensive Charges

Despite the slow, tactical play of these two teams, neither plays elite defense and both still have the offensive firepower needed to score in bunches. With the total sinking below 135, our NCAAB betting picks think the market has maybe gone too far.

Last Updated: Nov 27, 2022 9:09 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Zach Edey Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten college basketball
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Feast Week isn’t over quite yet as Sunday has a few great college basketball games on tap.

Early afternoon sees No. 8 Duke (6-1) face off with No. 24 Purdue (5-0) in the final of the Phill Knight Legacy in Portland, Oregon.

Which team will come out on top and have a tournament championship under its belt for bragging rights? Read our college basketball picks and predictions below to find out. 

Duke vs Purdue best odds

Duke vs Purdue picks and predictions

Duke hasn’t had the easiest go of things thus far in this tournament, narrowly dispatching Oregon State (54-51) before taking down Xavier (71-64).

Kyle Filipowski has been the star of the show, reaching double figures in scoring in every game this season while averaging a double-double (15.6 points per game, 10.0 rebounds per game). The first year under Jon Scheyer looks like it could be a successful one if the pieces fall into place, as there is plenty of talent at the first-year head coach’s disposal. 

Purdue arrives in the finals after two impressive victories. First, the Boilermakers defeated West Virginia 80-68 thanks to 24 points and 12 rebounds from big man Zach Edey. Then they notched a statement victory with a thorough 84-66 thumping of No. 6 Gonzaga to reach the finals. Edey has been the focal point of the team this season, averaging 21.8 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. 

Sunday’s final figures to be a great showcase of big-man play, as Edey and Filipowski both average a double-double and are among the nation’s best at the position. While an edge likely lies with the Boilermakers in this case, Duke does possess a better counter than most teams have to offer.

For the best bet, I’ll target the total instead of a side. Both squads have been terrible bets to the Over thus far, as Duke is 1-6 and Purdue is 1-4. College basketball odds seem to have overreacted with the total, as it’s currently all the way down to 134.5.

That’s a tick too low for me considering neither team is a defensive stalwart. Duke checks in at No. 22 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency while Purdue ranks No. 38, and there’s plenty of offensive firepower to help get these teams Over this very low total given the lack of elite defense. 

My best bet: Over 134.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

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Duke vs Purdue spread analysis

Despite opening as a pick‘em in some spots, Duke has been bet up to the favorite. At the time of this writing, the Blue Devils reside between -1.5 and -2.5, depending on the spot.

Duke is 4-3 against the spread this season, thanks primarily to the strong play of Filipowski. Two more players average double digits in lead guard Jeremy Roach (12.7 points per game) and freshman forward Mark Mitchell (10.7).

KenPom does not value this team’s work as highly as the pollsters, as the Blue Devils rank No. 15 overall in its power ratings. They look to have the makings of a solid defensive team that doesn’t have a lot of elite talent compared to some previous iterations.

Purdue remains a steady presence under Matt Painter. The Boilermakers are 3-2 ATS and just notched a comfortable outright victory over Gonzaga despite entering as 6.5-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shoot the ball very well, ranking 54th in 2-point percentage (55.9%) and 29th in free-throw percentage (77.6%).

I’m inclined to take the points with Purdue if choosing a side. The Boilermakers are a better shooting team and have the best player in this game in Edey. Coming off an impressive victory over Gonzaga, this team is riding high and will be tough to beat.

Duke vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

There’s certainly a reason that this total is so low — I just happen to think it’s gone a bit too far. Neither team will look to push the pace, as Purdue ranks No. 333 in KenPom’s adjusted tempo while Duke checks in at No. 316. Essentially, both teams are operating at a snail's pace.

Still, both teams are adept offensively and neither plays elite defense. The Blue Devils average 72.9 points per game and will look to crash the glass, as they rank first nationally in offensive rebounds per game (16.4). They rank No. 13 in adjusted offensive efficiency and should be able to find points against a Boilermakers defense checking in at No. 38 in KenPom.

Purdue’s offense has been humming, averaging 77.2 points per game. The Boilermakers just dropped 84 points on Gonzaga and put up 80 on West Virginia in Round 1, so this offense is in fine form. They’ve been red hot and should be able to find their fair share of points as they’ve proven to be capable shooters in Portland.

Duke vs Purdue betting trend to know

Purdue is 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games against the ACC. Find more College basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Purdue.

Duke vs Purdue game info

Location: Moda Center, Portland, OR
Date: Sunday, November 27, 2022
Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET


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