One of the best college basketball betting trends this season has been fading the Duke Blue Devils, who are 1-7 ATS. Nonetheless, Mike Krzyzewski's squad is favored by four points on the road tonight as Duke tangles with the Pittsburgh Panthers.
We break down the college basketball odds for this ACC showdown as we bring you our best free Duke vs. Pittsburgh picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 19, with tipoff at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Duke Blue Devils at Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview
Pittsburgh: John Hugley F (Out), Nick Sibande G (Out).
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Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 5-1 in the Panthers' last six games against teams with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Pittsburgh.
NCAAB Sharp Money and Line Movement ReportBy Patrick Everson
Duke opened -2.5 and bottomed out at -1.5 Monday evening at FanDuel, but rebounded and stretched to -4.5 by this morning. However, Pittsburgh is attracting 63 percent of spread bets and 67 percent of spread money, 90 minutes before this 9 p.m. ET tipoff. The total is up two points to 143.5, with ticket count 3/1 and money 2/1 on the Over.Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
After years of being a perennial contender, the Blue Devils are off to a shaky start to the year, going just 3-3 SU against power conference foes and coming off a 67-74 loss to Virginia Tech.
Now, Duke will have to contend with a Pittsburgh squad that is 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests and 7-1 SU in its previous eight. The Panthers are coming off back-to-back wins against Syracuse, edging the Orange by three points on the road and then smashing them by 20 points at home last Saturday.
The Panthers have three players scoring over 15 points per game, led by high-flying forward Justin Champagnie, who is averaging 18.7 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. The Panthers have been monsters on the glass, ranking 21st in the country in rebound rate, and they've also been very tough on the defensive end of the floor, holding opponents to 39.1 percent shooting and 89.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Blue Devils have a deep squad, led by big man Matthew Hurt, but they don't have the high-end talent they did in years past, especially with freshman forward Jalen Johnson hampered by a foot injury. Johnson returned to the floor against the Hokies but is still working back into game shape and wasn't his typical bouncy self.
While it has been efficient on the offensive end of the floor, Duke has struggled to defend, allowing opponents to shoot 46.4 percent—which ranks outside the Top-250 schools in the nation.
While we won't think Duke is quite as bad as its ATS record indicates, we do think oddsmakers – and the public – are giving them a bit too much love. Take the home side with the points.
PREDICTION: Pittsburgh +4 (-110)
Duke has a strong Over trend going, with a 16-7-1 O/U in its last 24 games, while Pitt has been an excellent Under bet, going 5-1 to the Under in its previous six contests. So which trend will win out?
It's worth mentioning that Duke's Over trend goes back to last season when it was one of the best offensive teams in the country—and played at a much faster pace than this year's squad.
The Blue Devils are a much less impressive 3-4 O/U this season and will be facing a Pittsburgh squad that is very tough on the defensive end of the floor. And while the Panthers are coming off a 96-point performance against a Jim Boeheim-coached Syracuse team, the Orange were absolutely abysmal on defense in that game.
The Panthers scored 71 or fewer points in each of their previous five games and we're expecting a return to that modest scoring production tonight. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 144 (-110)
Duke vs Pittsburgh Betting Card
- Pittsburgh +4 (-110)
- Under 144 (-110)
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