The UNC Wilmington Seahawks will look to continue one of the most successful seasons in their program’s history as they host the Dayton Flyers in the second round of the NIT.
Both schools play slow and have been excellent on defense this year, so I’ll be taking the Under in my Dayton vs. UNC Wilmington predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at this postseason matchup in my free college basketball picks for Saturday, March 21.
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington prediction
Who will win Dayton vs UNC Wilmington?
Dayton: While the UNC Wilmington Seahawks deserve full credit for their first-round upset of the Yale Bulldogs, it’s hard to see a repeat of that against the Dayton Flyers. The Flyers boast a legitimately tough defense and have gone 8-2 in Quad 2 games this season, while UNC Wilmington doesn’t have another win anywhere near as good as their victory over Yale.
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington best bet: Under 139 (-110 at bet365)
Dayton’s defense is good enough to rank 32nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Flyers are also on the slower side, so it’s little surprise that Dayton has held each of their last 11 opponents to 70 points or less.
The Seahawks aren’t likely to challenge that number. Wilmington shoots 44.3% from the field and averaged only 76.8 ppg against a weak schedule this season.
Throw in its own slower pace, and combined with Dayton – which hit the Under eight straight times before its win over the Bradley Braves, the Under looks like the clear play here.
COVERS INTEL: UNC Wilmington’s defense has also been outstanding down the stretch, allowing just 67.4 ppg and 39.3% shooting from the field over its last 10 games.
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington same-game parlay
As I noted in the “who will win” section above, the Flyers are both a more talented team and have played much more competition than UNC Wilmington, which means they should be able to cover a small spread on the road tonight.
One of their biggest difference makers is senior guard Javon Bennett, who is averaging 16.5 ppg and has scored 17+ in six of his last eight games down the stretch.
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington SGP
- Dayton -2.5
- Under 139.5
- Javon Bennett Over 14.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Swipes!
Since I’m big on the Dayton defense tonight, I thought it was only appropriate to back two of their top players to hit their steals totals.
Bennett has picked up at least two steals in two of his last three games, while fellow senior Keonte Jones has at least one takeaway in three of his last four outings.
And since we’re talking about going beyond the arc, I’ll also back Bennett to hit at least three shots from deep following his 5-for-10 performance from three-point range against Bradley.
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington SGP
- Dayton -2.5
- Javon Bennett Over 2.5 made threes
- Javon Bennett Over 1.5 steals
- Keonte Jones Over 0.5 steals
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington odds
- Spread: Dayton -2.5 (-110) | UNC Wilmington +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dayton -150 | UNC Wilmington +125
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 (-110)
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington betting trend to know
The Under is 8-1 in Dayton’s last nine games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. UNC Wilmington.
How to watch Dayton vs UNC Wilmington
| Location | Trask Coliseum, Wilmington, NC |
| Date | Saturday, March 21, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Dayton vs UNC Wilmington key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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