Caitlin Clark Props & Odds: Iowa Star Poised to Go Over 31.5 Points in Elite Eight Matchup vs LSU

Prop bet #1: Ire of the Tigers

Clark scored 30 points in the loss to LSU last season and was forced to the outside by a taller Tigers team patrolling the paint. Nineteen of Clark’s 22 shots came from beyond the arc as she finished 9-for-22 on the day along with going 4-for-5 from the foul line.

Alex Morris drew the assignment of slowing down Clark and made Iowa’s star work for every bucket. This year, Louisiana State isn’t as big inside and Clark will have a size advantage over LSU guard Hailey Van Lith, who she scored 41 points against in last year’s Elite Eight vs. Louisville. 

Clark’s 3-pointer market is leaning heavily toward Under 5.5 triples, but her scoring prop is as high as 32.5 points O/U against the Tigers. That means Clark needs to go to work inside to lift Iowa to the Final Four.

Louisiana State has a fantastic frontcourt but doesn’t have the same size-changing shots at the rim as last year. I see the Hawkeyes playing more halfcourt offense rather than Clark’s trademark pull-ups in transition, leaving Clark to backdown the smaller Van Lith or blow past taller wing checks in Mikaylah Williams and Flau'jae Johnson.

Clark is great at drawing the contact and getting to the foul line. While she weirdly didn’t get to the stripe in the win over Colorado, she attempted 21 total free throws in the first two rounds of the tournament, cashing in 19 of those freebies. I could see Clark benefit from the doubt on close calls from the referees tonight.

West Virginia took a very physical approach to slowing down Clark in the Round of 32, and I suspect LSU will bring that same aggression. Clark walked away from that defensive grinder with 32 points, scoring points outside, inside and at the foul line.

Clark’s scoring total sits as high as 32.5 points with the Over at -115 at some books while other shops have Over 31.5 as high as -134. You can find Over 31.5 at -115 at bet365.

Points prop: Over 31.5 (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Shop around on boards

Most books posting Clark props have her rebound total at 6.5 boards, but if you shop around you can find a taller rebounding O/U at 7.5 at DraftKings. 

Clark averages more than seven rebounds on the season and has snatched six, eight, and eight boards in her first three games of the tournament. But if there is one glaring difference between the Tigers and Hawkeyes, it’s on the glass.

Louisiana State is a big team that bodies opponents on the boards, hauling in 46 rebounds a game (fifth most in the NCAA) and a rebound rate of 57.9%. Iowa is by no means soft on the boards, topping the Big Ten in rebounding, but it is undersized when measured against the Tigers’ frontcourt.

I see the pace of this game being played slower than the Hawkeyes’ usual high gear and slower than last year’s national title game, which turned into a shootout. Louisiana State will go after the Iowa interior, keeping Clark outside the key and not in prime rebound range on defense.

Again, shop around and find the taller total on Clark’s rebounds if you’re going with the Under. Some books have total at 6.5 and others are dealing Under 7.5 as pricy as -135.

Rebounds prop: Under 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Down on Dimes

Clark’s scoring touch takes all the headlines but her skills as a playmaker are also elite. 

She dished out 15 assists in the Sweet 16 win over Colorado and averages just short of nine assists on the season, facing constant double teams as opponents try to take the ball out of her hand.

The Hawkeyes’ high-octane attack is at its best in an up-tempo game with the offense picking up the pace in transition, allowing Clark to quickly attack rival defenses out of position and find teammates in that open space. 

Louisiana State, however, is a tough team to do that against. The biggest strength LSU’s defense has going for it is its offense, which utilizes its size and strength inside for high-percentage looks. That either has Iowa starting possessions off the inbounds or on short rebounds, slowing down the pace of their offense. 

On top of that, the Tigers are dominant on the offensive glass and pushed around the Hawkeyes on the boards in last year’s title game. Those offensive rebounds are a backbreaker for rivals, giving LSU second touches and extending their time with the basketball.

Overall, Louisiana State is a very solid defense in the halfcourt. The Tigers give up only 11 assists per game and limit foes to an assist-to-shot rate of 48.1%. Louisiana State is also great at forcing turnovers, with foes averaging just less than 20 per game. The Hawkeyes offense has stalled out in games in which they struggle to take care of the ball. 

Assists prop: Under 10.5 (-134 at BetRivers)