Two traditional Big East college hoops powers meet in the first round of the conference tournament when the Xavier Musketeers take on the Butler Bulldogs at Madison Square Garden.
While this constitutes a down year for both programs, Xavier definitely had the edge when these two faced off, winning and covering both matchups. Can the Musketeers make it a perfect three-for-three as 5.5-point favorites?
Find our in our best free Xavier vs. Butler picks and predictions for NCAA hoops action on Wednesday, March 10, with tipoff at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Butler vs Xavier odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonFanDuel opened Xavier a 5.5-point favorite Tuesday afternoon, rose to -6.5 Tuesday night and briefly touched -7 this morning. But the number then fell back to -6, where it remains as of 3 p.m. ET on two-way action, with 52 percent of bets on Xavier and 55 percent of money on Butler. The total opened at 133, peaked at 134 and returned to 133, with 74 percent of bets/70 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameButler Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers betting preview
Injuries
Butler: Bo Hodges G (Questionable), Jakobe Coles F (Out), Aaron Thompson G (Out).
Xavier: Nate Johnson G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 3-0-1 in Butler's last four games following a SU loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Butler vs. Xavier.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
With back-to-back shocking upset victories over Seton Hall and Villanova, it looked as if Butler was building some momentum heading into the Big East Tournament. Then a 20-point loss at Creighton brought the Bulldogs back down to Earth, looking once again like the team that dropped six of its previous eight conference games.
Meanwhile, Xavier comes into this matchup having lost three of its last four games. And it’s probably not a coincidence that the Musketeers’ skid coincided with losing Nate Johnson. The senior guard was Xavier’s third-leading scorer and was one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation.
In those four games without Johnson, Xavier has averaged 67.5 points per game, down almost nine points from its season average of 75.1. That also means Butler can focus its defensive efforts on Zach Freemantle and Paul Scruggs.
That could mean success for a Bulldogs team that ranks 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency and third in the Big East in scoring defense. And while Butler may not have the top-end talent Xavier does on offense, what it does have is balance, with five players averaging double-digit points.
Mix that balance with a solid defense – and a Xavier team that is still adjusting to life without Johnson – and we like the Bulldogs as scrappy underdogs in this one.
PREDICTION: Butler +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total for this Big East tourney battle is set at 133 and that seems a little high for the two teams in this matchup. As noted, Xavier is averaging just 67.5 points per game without Johnson, while Butler ranks 173rd in the country when it comes to adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), scoring 63.6 points per game.
And with both the Musketeers and bulldogs ranking a respective 59th and 66th in adjusted defensive efficiency this game is a good bet to fall below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 133 (-106)
Butler vs Xavier betting card
- Butler +5.5 (-110)
- Under 133 (-106)
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