The No. 4 and No. 5 seeds square off in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament on Friday afternoon as the Arkansas Razorbacks take on the LSU Tigers.
These teams went down to the wire in Fayetteville last week and oddsmakers expect another close contest with college basketball betting lines opening with the Razorbacks as 1.5-point favorites.
Here are our best free Arkansas vs. LSU college basketball picks and predictions for March 11, with tipoff at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Arkansas vs LSU odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
This line hit the board shortly after LSU dispatched Missouri on Thursday night. The opening spread had the Razorbacks installed as slim 1.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at 138.5. As of 10 p.m. ET, the total has ticked up 139 at select books.
Arkansas vs LSU predictions
Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arkansas vs LSU game info
• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Arkansas vs LSU betting preview
Arkansas: Au'Diese Toney (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Razorbacks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. LSU.
Arkansas vs LSU picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
LSU is fresh off a 76-68 win against Missouri in the second round of the conference tournament last night. The Bayou Bengals jumped out to a 34-9 lead in that contest thanks to some terrific defensive pressure, but they took their foot off the pedal in the second half and allowed Mizzou to backdoor cover by scoring nine unanswered points in the final two minutes.
Defensive pressure has been key to the Tigers' success this season, but when they allow opponents to score 70 or more points, their offense is usually unable to keep up. LSU is 7-9 straight up and 6-10 against the spread in its last 16 games, which includes a pair of losses against Arkansas and even defeats against conference bottom-feeders Vanderbilt and Mississippi.
On the other hand, the Razorbacks have been red-hot over the last two months, going 14-2 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games to earn a double-bye in the conference tourney. They ended their regular season with a 78-74 loss on the road to Tennessee where they really missed wing Au'diese Toney when they came out flat in the first half.
Toney was a big reason the Razorbacks beat LSU on the road last week, dropping 18 points in 39 minutes in a 77-76 Arkansas victory. The senior injured his ankle at the end of that game, and while he made the trip to Tampa with the team, he's still in a boot and unlikely to suit up on Friday.
Even without Toney, this is a very balanced Arkansas team that features much better guard play and ball-handling than LSU's opponents last night. Unlike Mizzou, don't expect the Razorbacks to crumble under the pressure from the Tigers defense.
With LSU running hot and cold over the last two months we can't back it against an Arkansas team that comes in with plenty of momentum and recent wins versus the cream of the SEC crop in Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee (when it faced the Vols at home on February 19).
Prediction: Arkansas -1.5 (-110)
These squads combined for just 123 points when they faced off in Baton Rouge on January 15, but totaled 153 points when they clashed last Wednesday.
Both of these teams can lock down on defense but they also play at a fast tempo and have shown the ability to play higher-scoring games against quality opponents. Both LSU and Arkansas are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games against teams above .500, while the Tigers are 10-3 to the Over in their last 13 games overall.
Even without Toney, Arkansas has talented scorers led by guard J.D. Notae, who averages 18.9 points and 3.6 assists per game.
The Razorbacks have scored at least 74 points in four straight games, a span which includes that game against LSU but also includes impressive offensive performances against Kentucky and Tennessee, who have highly-rated defenses. We're leaning towards the Over.
Prediction: Over 138.5 (-110)
LSU has already lost to the Razorbacks twice this season, and with how inconsistent they've been lately, I can't trust them in this spot. The Tigers have one of the top defenses around but when they allow at least 70 points they are just 1-8 SU this season.
Given their recent play, I don't think they can hold the Razorbacks below that number. And even if they do, Arkansas has the defensive chops to grind out a victory in a low-scoring game as it did against Tennessee and LSU earlier this year.
Pick: Arkansas -1.5 (-110)
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