The NBA playoffs are all about momentum. When it comes to Tuesday’s Eastern Conference play-in tournament game between the No. 7 Boston Celtics and the No. 8 Washington Wizards, one team has momentum and one team does not.
The Celtics stumbled into the postseason with one win over their last five games while the Wizards’ late-season surge saw them win four of their previous six outings, capping a 17-6 run in the final 23 games of the regular season. Boston won two of three matchups with Washington this season (1-2 ATS).
Check out our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Wizards vs. Celtics on May 18.
Wizards vs Celtics game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Wizards vs Celtics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis line jumped the fence at TwinSpires Sportsbook, where Washington opened -1.5 and Boston is a 2.5-point favorite at 6 p.m. ET. The Wizards are drawing 55 percent of spread tickets, while the Celtics are taking 58 percent of spread money. "Great two-way action here," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total inched from 233 to 232.5, with the Over landing 60 percent of tickets/55 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gameWizards at Celtics betting preview
Injuries
Wizards: Deni Avdija F (Out), Raul Neto G (Questionable), Thomas Bryant C (Out).
Celtics: Robert Williams C (Questionable), Jaylen Brown G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boston is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games versus Washington. Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Celtics.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Boston had a rough couple of weeks to close out the regular season. On top of losing star guard Jaylen Brown for the postseason, the Celtics’ schedule sent them away from home for five of their final seven outings and the two home games in that stretch came against a red-hot Miami squad jockeying for position.
Boston did stop the bleeding with a much-needed cupcake win over Minnesota on Saturday which booked its ticket as the No. 7 seed and allowed the Celtics to breathe easy and rest their regular rotation at New York on Sunday. That opportunity and pause before the play-in tournament is huge for a club that was spiraling out of control in May.
Knocking off the Wizards is all about making Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal work for their buckets. Washington’s frenetic pace and transition offense has relentlessly attacked the rim during this winning streak, allowing the Wiz to average almost 124 points on 49.8 percent shooting per game since April 7, with almost half of those buckets coming in the paint.
Boston isn’t about those easy looks. The Celtics allowed a league-low 42.7 points in the paint per contest since April and maintained that interior toughness during the recent five-game slide (44.8). On the season, the C’s have locked down foes to an average of 43.2 field goal attempts inside of nine feet while checking those in-close attempts to a 47.7 percent success rate.
The Celtics also have the offensive firepower to push back against the Wizards on the scoreboard. Losing Brown is a knock to the team’s scoring, but stars like Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Marcus Smart are capable of big games as is Evan Fournier, who averaged just under 20 points per contest in May while shooting 57 percent from beyond the arc.
Boston opened as a slim home favorite for this play-in game, but public opinion drove this spread over the fence. I’m grabbing the points with a refreshed and reset home team.
PREDICTION: Boston +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Boston is one of the best defenses versus transition, giving up just 17.7 average points and a scoring frequency of 49.9 percent to transition offenses on the year. The loss of Brown definitely hurts against Washington's dynamic duo but the Celtics were able to slow up the Wizards in their most recent meeting — a 111-110 home win on February 28 — and did so without Brown in the lineup.
While these teams haven’t played each other since the end of February, Boston had success keeping the Wizards from making those interior shots, allowing an average of only 44 points in the paint in those three meetings while checking Washington to a mere 43.9-percent clip from the floor during the season series. These foes played Under the total in all three of those encounters.
A big part of the Celtics’ defense on Tuesday will be its offense and avoiding getting sucked into the Wizards’ chaotic tempo. Boston was burned by turnovers in its three matchups with Washington this year, coughing up the ball a total of 57 times for a collective 80 points off turnovers.
The Celtics have done a good job at limiting those mistakes in recent games, however, owning a turnover percentage of 12.7 in May, and trimming turnovers to just 11.3 per contest over their last three outings. Washington is very dependent on causing chaos and will get forced into a halfcourt set when it can’t generate those easy points off defense.
PREDICTION: Under 234.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
We mentioned Fournier's contributions over the past month above, and he's even more vital to Boston's success — on Tuesday and beyond — with Brown out of action.
The 6-foot-7 shooting guard is a tough matchup for Washington’s diminutive backcourt and has the speed to blow past larger defenders. Fournier’s biggest weapon down the home stretch of the schedule, however, was his 3-point shooting. He tallied more than four triples per game in his last seven outings, including a 7-for-11 performance from distance versus Miami on May 9.
"Never Google" has made three or more from long range in six of his last seven games after averaging only two 3-point buckets in April. He was shooting just 38.8 percent from beyond the arc with Orlando before being traded to Boston in late March, where he's making more than 46 percent of his looks from downtown.
PREDICTION: Evan Fournier 3-pointers made Over 3.5 (+130)
Wizards vs Celtics betting card
- Boston +1.5 (-110)
- Under 234.5 (-110)
- Evan Fournier 3-pointers made Over 3.5 (+130)
Picks made on 5/17/2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET
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