Warriors vs Kings Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dubs Pull Out Rare Road Win

The Sacramento Kings have held onto homecourt advantage in this first-round series, but continuing to do so may entirely hinge on the effectiveness of De’Aaron Fox despite the chipped fingertip on his shooting hand. If Fox can maintain his efficiency and frenetic play, then the Golden State Warriors dynasty may finally be looking at its final days.

Here are our free NBA picks for the Warriors vs. Kings on April 26.

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 best odds

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 picks and predictions

There was a plan. Long before beginning this handicap, there was a plan. Back on Monday, when the news leaked about DeAaron Fox’s fractured left index finger — and let’s remind everyone here, Fox is a left-handed shooter — this spread jumped to favoring the Golden State Warriors by 4.5 points after originally favoring the Sacramento Kings by 1.5.

That six-point swing came with the thought that De'Aaron Fox would be unlikely to play at all, but that was 48 hours before tip: writing the handicap then would have been a bit counter to what Covers.com usually provides. Personally, no bet was placed because the thought was, the only thing that should happen before tip is Fox gets ruled out, and then the spread will inflate even further.

Instead, he came out and adamantly said he will play. The plan was scuttled as the spread dropped down to Warriors by 1.5. This was no longer a ripe “buy on bad news, sell on good news” opportunity.

Or is it?

If Fox’s absence was worth six points and his stubbornness reduces that to three points, how confident is anyone in that latter number?

It is believed Fox injured the finger with about 4:30 left in Sunday’s game, knocking his finger on Kevon Looney and quickly grabbing at it. In the next minute, he went 1-for-1 from the field and hit two free throws with a rebound. Then, things fell apart, going 1 of 4 the rest of the game and adding a turnover for worse measure.

Realize, through Fox’s first 36 minutes on Sunday, he went 13-for-27, grabbed nine rebounds, and dished out five assists while committing only two turnovers. To then go 1 of 4 with just a turnover also showing up on the stat sheet is quite a shift, even if only in three-plus minutes.

Of course, Fox should handle his finger better after a few days and some treatment. But if it impacts his shot and his precision passing, then suddenly the Kings are in trouble. That possibility should be worth a point or two, right?

In a conservative version of “Buy on bad news,” possible limitations on Fox should be worth 1.5 points, not the three currently assigned to him. Let’s pay that premium to grab the Warriors to simply win the game on the road. Sell on the good Sacramento news of Fox playing injured, but sell cautiously.

My best bet: Warriors moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 spread analysis

The movement of this spread somewhat emphasizes the long-held belief of “Buy on bad news, sell on good news.” The gambling world’s reaction to Fox’s absence was to move the line six points, overlooking Sacramento’s depth.

If Fox was out or is found to be ineffective tonight, that will mean more work for Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell, and Malik Monk, players more than capable of making up groundwork.

But then Fox insists he will play, and he is fully expected to follow through on that. Yet his injury, which we have all of three or four minutes of tape on, is still worth three points? Either it is a big deal or it is nothing, this half-measure reeks of uncertainty.

Where you land on this lasting Warriors -1.5 offering depends on what you think the effect of that injury should be. Buying on bad news at this point is taking the Kings at +1.5 and putting faith in Sabonis and those other guards. Selling on good news is taking Golden State at -1.5 and thinking the market overcorrected on Fox’s word.

One of those is doubting a player’s insistence about his own health. Broadly speaking, that is a valid approach. Not referring to Fox specifically, but also not excluding him from this, plenty of players will conceal their pain until the game reveals the truth. Betting on that possibility is betting on plenty of precedents.

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 Over/Under analysis

Weighing Fox’s impact on a total is a far more complicated task. When word first leaked about Fox’s injury, the total plummetted from 237.5 to 233.5, with more faith put in his offensive explosions than this defensive prowess. His return, however limited, bumped the total back up to 234.5, again a midpoint.

Given it is Fox specifically, most of that shift may be pace related. In 73 games with him this season, Sacramento averaged 100.91 possessions per game, per statmuse. In nine games without Fox, the Kings averaged 97.94 possessions per game.

Fox pushes the pace that much, we’ve all seen it, and he should still be able to do that with an injured finger. That should create some value in the still somewhat-deflated total.

Warriors vs Kings betting trend to know

Including Game 2, the Kings are 3-3 against the spread this season as home underdogs of no more than one bucket and 2-4 straight up. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Kings.

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 game info

Warriors vs Kings Game 5 key injuries

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