If you hear someone bring up the TV ratings of the NBA Finals, feel free to remind them no one cares. The NBA just signed a massive TV deal. Even the NBA does not need to care about ratings for a few years. It will not be negotiating again until well into the 2030s.
All the NBA should care about is good basketball, and no one is playing better basketball than the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers are, with the possible exception of the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty. Both the Thunder and the Pacers play at an increased tempo, they emphasize ball movement, and they are led by unique superstars.
Anyone not excited for these NBA Finals is simply telling you they do not like good basketball. That is too bad. They are missing out.
Join me as I break down this intriguing series and offer some of my favorite NBA picks.
All odds courtesy of bet365.
Pacers vs Thunder series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 +500 |
To win |  -700 |
| +2.5 (-110) |
Handicap | -2.5 (-130) |
| Over 4.5 (-425) | Total games | Under 4.5 (+290) |
The odds have been shifting more and more heavily toward the Oklahoma City Thunder ever since the Celtics lost two games to the Knicks in the second round. But they may have arguably shifted too far.
Yes, Oklahoma City beat Minnesota in five games, but one could also argue that one game was within one possession, and the Timberwolves blew a lead in another. More pertinently, Minnesota’s greatest weaknesses should be non-issues for the Indiana Pacers.
The Timberwolves were undone by turnovers against the Thunder. They averaged 16.6 turnovers per game, their three big men repeatedly stripped in the lane. Minnesota had the highest turnover percentage this postseason of any team to survive the first round at 16.3% in these playoffs. That was already at 15.7% before facing Oklahoma City.
The Pacers rank No. 3 in that regard this postseason, with a turnover percentage of only 12.7%. Against the Knicks’ rather aggressive defense, Indiana turned over the ball on just 12.6% of possessions.
Oklahoma City should be a hefty favorite, but -700 may be too much of a price to pay given Indiana’s offense.
Pacers vs Thunder series preview
Pacers vs Thunder statistical breakdown
The Thunder are better than the Pacers by just about every metric, but Indiana should not be outright dismissed. The Pacers ranked No. 6 in the NBA in net rating from New Year’s Day to the regular season’s end, a period of time coinciding with when it finally looked like Tyrese Haliburton had returned to health.
That is forgotten too much, that Haliburton clearly fought a hamstring injury late last season and in those playoffs. And then he never truly had an offseason thanks to the delight of winning a gold medal at the Olympics. His hamstring was still a bit of a nuisance early this season.
Of course, the Thunder ranked No. 1 in net rating during that same stretch, 7.9 points per 100 possessions better than the Pacers. There is a reason Oklahoma City is -700 to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
When pondering Indiana, the focus is usually on its offense. Tyrese Haliburton’s highlights justify that view. But in reality, the Pacers’ defense may be better than their offense, ranking No. 8 in rating since the All-Star Break compared to No. 13 for the offense.
Simply put, if Indiana can avoid turning over the ball and instead force Oklahoma City into the halfcourt, the Pacers should hold their own against the Thunder’s offense.
Pacers vs Thunder series props
Pacers vs Thunder correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers |
+6000 | +3500 | +1400 | +1100 |
| Thunder |
+300 | +190 | +375 | +500 |
Pick: Thunder 4-1 (+190 at bet365)
As talented as Haliburton is with the ball, Indiana largely lacks a second creator. Pascal Siakam can create his own buckets, but he is rarely asked to create for his teammates. Andrew Nembhard has been second on the Pacers this postseason in assists with 5.1 per game, but those generally do not come within a half-court set.
Minnesota learned the hard way that a second creator is needed against Oklahoma City. The defensive combination of Lu Dort and Alex Caruso exhausts any primary ballhandler, as it should even Haliburton. Then, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are more than capable of slowing someone like Siakam. Suddenly, an offense as good as Indiana’s can stall outright.
Those waves of Thunder defenders should stifle Haliburton for most of this series. While this should still be fantastic and enjoyable basketball, it should also be a quick series.
Indiana’s offense demands some adjustments. That is how it has gotten out to a 2-0 lead in each round of this postseason. But Oklahoma City’s defense also demands some adjustments, and combining that with home-court advantage should get the Thunder out to a 2-0 lead despite the Pacers’ attack.
At that point, a 4-1 series win will be the most likely outcome, somewhat surprising to see it priced as high as +190 still.
Pacers vs Thunder total games
Pick: Over 4.5 (-425 at bet365)
Yes, this Over 4.5 games is heavily juiced at -425, but the only other option currently posted by bet365 is an Over/Under of 6.5 with the Under juiced to -500.
Betting against a sweep holds two thoughts of merit. First of all, there has been only one sweep in the NBA Finals in the last 18 years, the 2018 Warriors sweeping the beat-up Cavaliers. If Indiana returns home down two games, it should rally for at least one win in front of its home crowd. That cause will be helped by the psychological letdown inherent to going on the road with a two-game lead, as the Thunder displayed in getting routed by the Timberwolves in Game 3.
Second of all, the Pacers' offense is unique. Rick Carlisle’s title-winning experience may help confuse the Thunder just long enough to get one win in this series, and that will be all that is needed to cash this no matter the juice.
Pacers vs Thunder most threes made
Pick: Aaron Nesmith (+450 at bet365)
Even if removing Aaron Nesmith’s barrage to spark Indiana’s comeback in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals — going 8-of-9 from deep — he has made 2.3 threes per game this postseason while taking 5.1 per game. And all those numbers fell after he sprained his ankle in Game 3 of the ECF, going 6-of-18 after that.
But by the time the Finals tip off, Nesmith will be five days removed from a game and 10 days removed from the initial injury. He may not be 100 percent, but that time off can do wonders for a 25-year-old.
Now let’s remove both those four games of injury and that Game 1 barrage. That removes both Nesmith’s valley and his peak. In the 11 remaining games, he has hit 2.6 threes per game on 5.4 attempts.
Every version of Nesmith is shooting better than Haliburton from deep, and with Oklahoma City’s defense focused on Haliburton, his bounty of looks may dry up.
It is an outright mistake by the sportsbook to set Haliburton’s odds in this market at -120 while Nesmith is at +450.
This much is clear: The player who hits the most threes in this series will not be on the Thunder. Oklahoma City encourages opponents to shoot from deep; Indiana is one of the best defenses at limiting such.
Pacers vs Thunder series best bet
Pick: Thunder to Never Trail in Series and Win (-225 at bet365)
To be completely honest, betting on Nesmith to lead the series in 3-pointers could be considered the best bet. But aside from that, there is value in this specific prop bet.
The Thunder are listed at -300 to win both Game 1 and the NBA Finals. What is the difference between this bet and that one? The Pacers would have to win Games 2 and 3 or split the first four and win Game 5 in Oklahoma City in order to ruin this exact prop while still possibly cashing that -300 bet.
Is there some risk in those scenarios? Sure, some. But getting this bet at -225 as doubt in the Pacers fulfilling either of those specific scenarios is solid betting value.
