The NBA Finals tip-off tonight with the Indiana Pacers visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 inside the Paycom Center.
Oddsmakers have OKC installed as 9-point home chalk in the series opener, marking just the ninth time since 2010 that the finals have featured a favorite of -9 or higher.
If Oklahoma City is going to live up to that rare status, it will need a big night from small forward Jalen Williams, who has been sensational as the team’s second option in the postseason.
Here are my best NBA picks and Pacers vs. Thunder predictions for June 4.
Who will win Pacers vs Thunder Game 1?
As mentioned, since 2010, there have been only eight teams close as a favorite of -9 or higher in the NBA Finals. Those hefty faves went 7-1 SU but just 4-4 ATS – the majority of those results coming from the classic Golden State vs. Cleveland title series.
The Pacers keep defying logic and could cover with all those padding points, but I’ll take OKC to win outright in Game 1.
Pacers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Jalen Williams SGP 20+ Points / 5+ Rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander may be the MVP, but the Oklahoma City Thunder's success is just as tethered to Jalen Williams.
The Thunder’s small forward has been stellar during OKC’s run to the finals, averaging 20.4 points and 5.8 rebounds in the postseason. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Williams upped that production to 22.2 points and 6.6 rebounds in the Western Conference finals.
This matchup with the Indiana Pacers is a perfect fit for the energetic Williams, who will be counted on to cover a lot of ground on both ends of the floor. The Pacers are a quicker team with a frenetic energy on offense, but they don’t turn over the ball much, despite an insane amount of movement.
The Thunder are rooted in flipping defense into offense, but Williams isn’t as dependent on points off turnovers as SGA. He’s able to score inside and out in a half-court set while also picking up points at the free-throw line.
He’s logging major floor time, and his Game 1 models have him dialed in for as many as 39 minutes. From that, scoring projections range from 21.8 to 23 points on Thursday, with his solo scoring prop total sitting as high as 23.5 points O/U before the market settled in at 22.5 O/U.
Williams was very active on the glass against Minnesota. He pulled in almost seven boards per game and recorded eight or more rebounds in three of the five contests (he had four rebounds in just 25 minutes of Game 3’s blowout loss).
His advanced stats show an average of 10.4 rebounding chances throughout the tournament, with that metric jumping to 11.0 in the Western Conference finals. Indiana isn’t a strong rebounding team, boasting a rebound rate of just 47.5% in the playoffs and 46.9% versus the New York Knicks in the ECF.
Williams’ Game 1 forecasts range between 5.9 and 7.1 rebounds in the opener. His standalone rebounding prop is parked at 5.5 with the Over juiced as high as -150.
You can combine Williams' scoring and rebounding efforts in a same game parlay, tying 20+ points to 5+ Rebounds for a +100 return a bet365. This same SGP is asking as much as -120 at some other books.
Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Jalen Williams 20+ Points
Williams 5+ Rebounds
Dort 5+ Rebounds
Williams is getting better with every series and will thrive in this up-tempo matchup with Indiana, as projections call for as many as 23 points in Game 1.
Williams is also cleaning the glass for OKC. Game models call for as many as seven rebounds, with his advanced metrics showing more than 10 rebounding chances per outing.
Luguentz Dort draws the assignment of defending Tyrese Haliburton and will also be counted on to round up rebounds. His Game 1 models sit as high as five boards.
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Pacers vs Thunder odds
Pacers vs Thunder live odds
Pacers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +9.5 (-115) | Oklahoma City -9.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Indiana (+320) | Oklahoma City (-425)
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
• Bookies opened OKC as a 9.5-point home favorite in Game 1, and early action has grabbed the points with the Pacers, knocking the hook off the key number of nine. Most shops are dealing Thunder -9 now.
• The total hit the board at 230.5 points and crept up to 231.5 O/U with some initial interest in the Over. The Thunder went 3-2 O/U in their five WCF games while the Pacers finished 3-3 O/U in the ECF.
• According to Covers Consensus, 79% of picks are taking the points with Indiana while 64% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Pacers vs Thunder trend
Going back to the 2010 NBA Finals, favorites of -9 or higher are 7-1 SU but 4-4 ATS. Those eight games finished 6-2 Over/Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Pacers vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Thursday, 6-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Pacers vs Thunder latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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