The 2023-24 NBA season begins next week, which means now is the perfect time to lock in preseason NBA futures wagers before actual games are played and the odds shift accordingly.
Today I’ve outlined my Top 3 NBA futures picks including my best bets for the NBA Championship, NBA Rookie of the Year, and a win total you can’t afford to miss.
NBA Champion: Denver Nuggets (+450 at bet365)
How quick we are to forget the defending champions. Despite one of the most dominant playoff runs in recent memory, the Denver Nuggets have the third longest NBA championship odds this season after the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.
While the shiny additions out East are important factors in the equation, the reality is that this version of the Nuggets has proven to be almost without flaw. They have the best player on the planet at the peak of his powers in Nikola Jokic, a perfect offensive partner for him in Jamal Murray, and a cast of playoff-tested supporting players behind them.
While the Bucks and Celtics are clearly two of the best teams in the NBA, their path to the championship is harder than Denver’s because they must play each other first before they can even get there. Denver’s primary competition is the Phoenix Suns, and the Nuggets handled them easily despite Devin Booker playing the series of his life.
The Suns made moves, but swapping Deandre Ayton out for Jusuf Nurkic feels like a move made out of desperation rather than a winning calculus. Nothing the Suns did this summer suggests they’ll be any better suited to slowing down Denver’s' best-in-class playoff offense.
With Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. also coming off healthy offseasons, this should be the best version of the Nuggets we’ve ever seen.
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Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (+120 at DraftKings)
Rookie of the Year this season is being billed as a three-horse race between Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and Chet Holmgren. But in reality, this is a race between Victor and public expectations.
| Player | Team | Position |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama |  San Antonio Spurs |
C | +120 |
| Scoot Henderson |  Portland Trail Blazers |
PG | +240 |
| Chet Holmgren |  Oklahoma City Thunder |
C | +280 |
| Brandon Miller |  Charlotte Hornets |
SF | +1,600 |
| Cam Whitmore |  Houston Rockets |
SF | +2,200 |
| Jarace Walker |  Indiana Pacers |
SF/PF | +2,500 |
| Amen Thompson | Houston Rockets |
PG | +2,500 |
| Julian Strawther |  Denver Nuggets |
SG/SF | +2,500 |
| Sasha Vezenkov |  Sacramento Kings |
PF | +2,800 |
| Ausar Thompson |  Detroit Pistons |
SG | +3,000 |
| Anthony Black |  Orlando Magic |
PG/SG | +3,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, October 20, 2023.
If the San Antonio Spurs phenom even comes close to the sky-high expectations being laid out for his first NBA season, he will be a lock to win the award. While it might be tempting to back the fiery and skilled Holmgren, or the mature beyond his years Henderson, the chalk bet is the play.
Victor looked like a project player during Las Vegas Summer League, but his preseason play has been a revelation. While his defensive impact from Day 1 has never been in doubt, what is becoming apparent is just how deadly he will be on offense right away.
Not only do his ballhandling and shooting skills amaze at his 7-foot-4 frame, but his passing vision and willingness to rim run make him a matchup nightmare.
The NBA is buying in on Wemby being the next big thing too, as the Spurs have 19 national TV games this season, which will give him plenty of opportunity to rack up viral highlights and woo the voting public. Pounce on his +120 NBA Rookie of the Year odds now while there's still value.
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Toronto Raptors Over 36.5 Wins (+100 at bet365)
The Toronto Raptors are coming off a disappointing season. Their best players have been heavily rumored in trades, they lost Fred VanVleet to the Houston Rockets, and Scottie Barnes had a middling sophomore campaign.
So, it’s understandable that oddsmakers don’t think much of the Raptors this season, as evidenced by their pitiful 36.5 NBA team win totals odds. However, even though this Raptors team isn’t anybody’s idea of a contender, that line is much, much too low.
Toronto won 41 games last season, but critically they had a point differential more akin to a 45-win team. Just as it’s difficult for a team to improve by 10 wins in quality year over year, it is nearly as hard for a team to make the reverse pivot while keeping its core roster together.
The Raptors will miss VanVleet, but not to the tune of 10 wins. Darko Rajaković’s new offensive principles also seem to have reinvigorated the Raptors after Nick Nurse’s voice had gone stale.
A number this low makes it feel like a trade is baked in because the roster is better than this. But Masai Ujiri has been hesitant to trade away present success for future success, so they are likely to hold onto Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby even though they’re facing the threat of free agency.
