Is Kyrie Irving enough for the Dallas Mavericks to stay afloat in the Western Conference? Dallas is now without Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively II, not to mention a number of bench pieces. Even Klay Thompson is fighting a sprained ankle.
That lengthy injury report explains why the Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-point favorites tonight, even without Donte DiVincenzo and the space-creating shooting he had unleashed of late. Minnesota desperately needs a win, a two-game losing streak again knocking it to the brink of missing even the Play-In Tournament.
The stakes for both these teams are heightening halfway through the season. My Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions and NBA picks anticipate an underappreciated scorer rising to the occasion just as he has for the last week.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Naz Reid Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Timberwolves have finally unlocked a viable approach with Donte DiVincenzo entering the starting lineup in recent weeks. In six starts since Jan. 6, he shot 42.1% from beyond the arc on 9.5 attempts per game. This was the quality and quantity of perimeter shooting the Timberwolves sought when they insisted DiVincenzo be included in the trade package for Karl-Anthony Towns.
By no coincidence, Minnesota went 4-2 outright with DiVincenzo starting.
And then he suffered a toe sprain that will sideline him indefinitely, and the Timberwolves have gone 1-2 since. That record would have been worse if not for the lessons learned during DiVincenzo’s starting stint. Minnesota now understands how badly it needs shooting on the floor to best showcase Anthony Edwards.
Since DiVincenzo’s injury, Minnesota has not turned back to Mike Conley like might have been expected. Before the lineup shift, Conley averaged 24.9 minutes per game. While DiVincenzo started, Conley’s workload fell to 21.4 minutes. Since DiVincenzo’s injury, that has ticked back up to 24.2, but that is less of a jump than perhaps expected given the 25+ minutes falling out of the lineup without DiVincenzo.
That is because some of them have gone to Naz Reid, the best chance at a shooter to replace DiVincenzo’s production. Before DiVincenzo was starting, Reid averaged 24.7 minutes. Since DiVincenzo’s injury, Reid has been averaging 28.1 minutes.
More pertinently, he has taken eight 3-pointers per game, making an absurd 62.5% of them.
Before DiVincenzo entered the starting lineup, Reid was taking just 4.9 threes per game.
This jump in volume reflects the emphasis learned while DiVincenzo was starting. Reid is Minnesota’s best shooter, and the offense needs that spacing these days.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Since Minnesota snapped to realizing Anthony Edwards needed the ball in his hands with space around him to best operate, his entire stat line has been unlocked. The key was letting Edwards initiate more of the offense, despite having a veteran point guard like Mike Conley around.
In the nine games since DiVincenzo entered the starting lineup and then Reid kept shooting at those rates, Edwards has averaged 30 points with 5.3 assists per game.
He has cleared this points prop in six of nine games, including each of the last five. And he has cleared this assists prop in five of nine games.
In fact, this exact same-game parlay would have cashed in two of the last three games since DiVincenzo wrecked his toe.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds
Timberwolves vs Mavericks live odds
Timberwolves vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -1.5 | Dallas +1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -125 | Dallas +105
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a mere 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday evening, but as the Dallas injury report got longer and longer, the spread climbed to -2.5 by Wednesday morning and -3 in the midmorning.
- The total also fell as the Dallas injury report lengthened, opening at 218.5 on Tuesday evening and reaching 216.5 by early Wednesday, then 215 in the early afternoon.
- The Mavericks have gone 3-10 against the spread since Luka Doncic’s calf strain.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks trend
In 13 games without Doncic, Dallas has cashed nine Unders. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Mavericks
Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas , Texas |
Date | Wednesday, 1-22-2025 |
Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
TV | FDSN NO, KFAA, SN |
Timberwolves vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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