The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are locked at 1-1 in their Western Conference semifinal and head up the mountain for Game 3 inside Ball Area tonight.
There’s no shortage of firepower on the floor for these two contenders and I take a close look at the individual efforts, giving my best NBA prop picks and Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions for on May 9.
Best Thunder vs Nuggets props
Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds (-120)- Williams SGP 20+ points/5+ assists (+150)
- Caruso Over 1.5 three-pointers (+160)
Thunder vs Nuggets player props for May 9
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 8.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
I bet this same prop in Game 2 and it looked like it was money in the bank with Isaiah Hartenstein snatching eight rebounds through 13-plus minutes in the first half.
But with the Oklahoma City Thunder blowing out the Denver Nuggets, the 7-footer played less than nine minutes in the second half and couldn’t give me that one final rebound.
I’m back on the boards with Hartenstein to go Over 8.5 rebounds tonight.
In 22 minutes, he boasted 13.0 rebounding chances in Game 2 on the heels of 16.0 rebounding chances and nine actual rebounds in Game 1.
As mentioned in my Game 2 handicap, Hartenstein is more of a rim protector so when he’s not spelling Chet Holmgren from guarding Nikola Jokic, he’s patrolling the paint and sitting in prime rebounding position.
His player projections for Game 3 range from 7.8 to 11.6 with the majority of those models coming in higher than the 8.5-rebound total. My number for Hartenstein is at 9.8 boards, which should have the Over 8.5 juiced to -154 but you can find this at -120.
Jalen Williams same-game parlay of 20+ points and 5+ assists (+150 at bet365)
Another Game 1 bet that got derailed by the Thunder’s beatdown was my same-game parlay for Jalen Williams. I was asking for at least 20 points and five assists from Oklahoma City’s forward.
He made good on the assists, dishing out seven dimes in the one-sided win. However, Williams was 6 for 11 from the field and added 5 of 6 free throws to score just 17 points in a limited 26 minutes.
Williams’ scoring forecasts all come in past 20 points for Game 3 and given his normal floor time, there’s a good shot he gets 20-plus tonight.
His assists total is a little tighter, but models range from 5.4 to 5.7 dimes and Williams’ advanced metrics show eight potential assists in each of the first two games of this series.
He averaged 21.6 and 5.3 assists in the regular season and hung 20+ points and 5+ assists in all four games of Round 1’s sweep of Memphis. This series with Denver is being played at an even quicker pace than those games with the Grizzlies, offering more possessions and chances to pad those two stat lines.
Alex Caruso Over 1.5 three-pointers (+160 at bet365)
Alex Caruso played just 10 minutes in OKC’s squash of the Nuggets in Game 2, missing his two attempts from beyond the arc. He did log 26 minutes in Game 1 of the series, jacking up nine triples and making five of those long-range looks.
All 11 of Caruso's three-point attempts in this series were wide open looks, with no defenders within six feet. If the Nuggets aren't going to respect his range, Caruso will make them pay.
He's averaging 1.7 three-pointers on four shots from distance through his six postseason games, However, in the four outings in which he played his regular minutes (taking out a blowout win over Memphis in Game 1 and Wednesday’s win), the spunky reserve guard is a collective 10 for 22 from deep.
Game 3 takes place in Denver, so expect a tighter contest and regular run for Caruso, who logged almost 20 minutes per game in the regular season and has received 22 minutes or more in those four non-blowout playoff games.
Player projections range between 1.5 and 1.7 3-pointers made from Caruso, with my number at 1.65 makes from downtown. The Over 1.5 triples from Caruso sits as short as +124 at some books, but you can get a solid return at +160 at bet365 for an Over option that should be priced around +110.
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