The reports of Joel Embiid's return appeared greatly exaggerated after he was not at this morning's shootaround, but the Philadelphia 76ers' big man will indeed play tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. That tilts the 76ers to NBA odds favorites against the Western Conference leaders, partly because injuries have cut into the Thunder's rotation.
Betting against Oklahoma City seems prudent tonight and it may be the last chance to buy low on Philadelphia, so let’s do so in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview Thunder vs. 76ers on Tuesday, April 2.
Thunder vs 76ers predictions
My best bet: 76ers moneyline (+124 at Pinnacle)
The plan was to write up a best bet taking the Under on Jalen Williams’ points prop at 19.5. The second-year rising star was then ruled out with an ankle concern.
The logic was two-fold. First of all, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be playing again after returning to the Oklahoma City Thunder lineup on Sunday. Both players can score, of course, but Gilgeous-Alexander may need to regain his groove before the playoffs, leading to some emphasis.
Secondly, the Philadelphia 76ers play slowly. Focus on its time since Joel Embiid’s injury on Jan. 27, and the 76ers are one the league’s absolute slowest teams.
More notably, they are getting slower. Since Embiid went down, Philadelphia has ranked No. 28 in the NBA at 95.66 possessions per game. Since Tyrese Maxey’s return to the lineup from a four-game absence in early March, the 76ers have ranked last in the NBA at 93.64 possessions per game.
It makes sense. Without Embiid, Philadelphia is often at a talent disadvantage. Slow the game down, minimize that talent gap, and try to hold onto seeding in the Eastern Conference. And while this thought was first created when Embiid was presumed out tonight, the logic holds. He will not be at full speed just yet.
A slower game would have worked against Williams getting as many shots. And it should still work against the Thunder, who seem to be putting an emphasis on getting healthy before the playoffs, an understandable emphasis.
Maxey looks likely to be in the lineup after missing Sunday night’s win against the Raptors due to left hip tightness. Facing Toronto created a chance to take precaution.
Facing Oklahoma City does not, especially not when the Thunder are on a lengthy road trip and the front half of a back-to-back. Oklahoma City will be glad to grind this game down, too, and fewer possessions will create more variance, at which point the underdog’s moneyline holds value.
Well, it was the underdog's moneyline when first written. Even with Philadelphia a short favorite as tip nears, the logic remains valid.
Thunder vs 76ers same-game parlay
76ers moneyline
Under 220.5
Tyrese Maxey Over 25.5 points
The Thunder prefer to play at a fast pace, ranking No. 5 in the NBA since March 1, but this is a clear chance to dial that back. This East Coast road trip is only just getting started with four more games in the next week before heading back to Oklahoma City.
They face the Celtics tomorrow night, and this is at a time when the Thunder cannot yield a single game in the chase to be the No. 1 seed out West, so they may try to toe the line of a close win tonight in order to have more energy tomorrow night, and that approach would embrace a slow game.
For that matter, not to get into intangibles, but tornadoes in central Oklahoma yesterday undoubtedly exacted some mental fatigue on the Thunder roster.
A slower game paradoxically plays into Maxey’s designs. For a frenetic player, he displays remarkable comfort in the half-court game, and that has been the pace he is most used to.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs 76ers odds and trends
Thunder vs 76ers live odds
Thunder vs 76ers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 | Philadelphia +5.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -203 | Philadelphia +180
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Thunder vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened as high as -5 in Philadelphia’s favor before Tuesday’s injury rumblings knocked it down to -4.5. When Williams was then ruled out, it plummeted to -2 and bounced back to -2.5. A skeptic could wonder if that drop also sheds light on Gilgeous-Alexander’s availability, but if he was out, the line would have moved more than 2.5 points in total.
- The total fell to 221 from 224 before the injury news, as much a reflection of fewer players creating a slower thought as it is a testament to Williams’s offensive impact, not that the latter is negligible.
- The 76ers have gone 7-2 against the spread in their last nine since Maxey returned to his full workload.
Thunder vs 76ers trend
The Thunder have gone 5-11 ATS since Feb. 29, including going just 6-5 outright as favorites of 11 points or fewer. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. 76ers.
Thunder vs 76ers game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 2, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Not intended for use in MA.
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