The shorthanded Phoenix Suns head north to face the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night, as the Wolves look to extend their five-game win streak.
Despite a poor ATS record, my Suns vs. Timberwolves predictions call for Minnesota to cover a double-digit spread in front of the home crowd.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this Western Conference matchup on Monday, December 8 at Target Center.
Suns vs Timberwolves prediction
Suns vs Timberwolves best bet: Timberwolves -10 (-110)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are just 8-15 ATS this season, and the public is leaning heavily on the Phoenix Suns to cover the spread, with 61% of bets coming in on Phoenix. I’m zigging while the public is zagging and taking the Wolves to cover.
On the season, the Wolves own the seventh-best Net Rating in the Association at +9.8, including a +8.2 Net Rating at home. The Suns rank 13th in Net Rating at +2.0 overall, but Phoenix is -2.1 on the road, which ranks 16th.
Devin Booker is the Suns’ leading scorer at 25 points per game, and Dillon Brooks ranks second in scoring at 22.3. The duo has scored 40.7% of the Suns’ points this season, and with both potentially sidelined, Phoenix will have trouble putting up points.
The Wolves rank 11th in Defensive Rating at 113.3 overall and eighth at home at 110.6. Combine the Suns’ potential offensive struggles with a tough Minnesota defense playing in front of the home crowd on a five-game winning streak, and you’ve got the perfect recipe for a big Timberwolves win.
Suns vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Phoenix finished with just 98 points in its last game out, a 19-point loss to the Houston Rockets on the road. Phoenix ranks 17th in offensive rating on the road at 113.7, and Minnesota ranks eighth in defensive rating at home at 110.6.
Without Booker and potentially without Brooks, the Suns' offense will sputter.
Gillespie has taken on a substantial role for Phoenix this season, absorbing a big chunk of the minutes vacated by Jalen Green. With Green still on the shelf and both Booker and Brooks banged up, Collin Gillespie should see heavy usage tonight.
He's averaged 26.6 PRA across his last five games, hitting the Over on this line three times, all on the road.
Suns vs Timberwolves SGP
- Timberwolves -10
- Suns team total Under 107.5
- Collin Gillespie Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Oh, that’s Naz-ty!
Naz Reid has averaged 15.4 points across his last seven games, hitting the Over five times, including four straight heading into Monday's matchup. The 2023-24 Sixth Man of the Year has gone for at least 14 points in 12 of 23 games overall, including seven of 11 at home.
Suns vs Timberwolves SGP
- Timberwolves -10
- Suns team total Under 107.5
- Collin Gillespie Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Naz Reid Over 13.5 points
Suns vs Timberwolves odds
- Spread: Phoenix +10 (-115) | Minnesota -10 (-105)
- Moneyline: Phoenix +350 | Minnesota -450
- Over/Under: Over 224 (-110) | Under 224 (-110)
Suns vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Suns have hit the 1Q Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Suns vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, December 8, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Suns vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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