Suns vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Phoenix Firepower Too Much for Denver

Injuries have nearly derailed Denver's season, with the MVP doing his best to hold it all together. Against a team like Phoenix, its shorthandedness can get exposed — and our Suns vs. Nuggets NBA betting picks expect just that.

Zachary Cohen - Contributor at
Mar 24, 2022 • 15:09 ET • 4 min read
Nikola Jokic Denver Nuggets NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

After earning a big comeback win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, the Phoenix Suns will be going for seven wins in a row when they head to Colorado and take on the Denver Nuggets. The team will also be boosted by the return of Chris Paul, who hasn’t played since the All-Star break. 

Will Phoenix stay hot with yet another road win over a Western Conference playoff team? You’ll have to keep reading our Suns vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions if you want our favorite bets for this one. 

Suns vs Nuggets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Suns were getting four points in this game for most of the day, but the line has now swung to +1 or +1.5 with Paul being upgraded to probable. Meanwhile, the total is up from 231 at open to as high as 233, depending on where you’re looking. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Suns vs Nuggets predictions

Predictions made on 3/24/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Suns vs Nuggets game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Suns vs Nuggets betting preview

Key injuries

Suns: Chris Paul G (Probable), Cameron Johnson F (Out), Frank Kaminsky C (Out), Dario Saric F (Out).
Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. F (Out), Zeke Nnaji F (Out), Jamal Murray G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Suns are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 road games versus teams with winning home records. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

Suns vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Suns didn’t look great in the first half last night, but they turned things on and ended up earning a nine-point win over a red-hot Timberwolves team. Deandre Ayton was an absolute monster for Phoenix in that game, as he had 35 points and 14 rebounds. 

Over the last 10 games, Ayton is now averaging 21.7 points and 11.2 rebounds per game for the Suns, and he’ll now look to hold his own in a matchup with Nikola Jokic. Don’t be surprised if the big man does just that, as he really limited Jokic’s production when these teams met in the playoffs last year. After scoring 33.0 points per game on 53.4% shooting against the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round, Jokic averaged just 25.0 on 48.5% shooting against the Suns. Part of that had to do with Jokic’s weak supporting cast, but Denver is still without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. 

Denver also doesn’t have the type of perimeter scoring it needs to keep up with a team with Devin Booker right now. The second-best player in the Nuggets’ rotation is currently Aaron Gordon, who is mostly known as a moveable chess piece on the defensive end. The Suns have one of those in Mikal Bridges, and he Phoenix’s young wing happens to be playing well offensively, too. But Booker is averaging 28.1 points per game on 53.6% shooting from the floor, 42.1% shooting from three and 90.2% shooting from the charity stripe in March. He’s on a tear right now and should be able to light it up in this spot. 

Overall, this Phoenix team is too talented for Denver, especially with Paul returning to action. Phoenix has been winning games at a high clip without him, but the All-Star is a massive upgrade when compared to 30 or so minutes of Cameron Payne. Even if he’s a little rusty with his jumper, he’ll make up for it with his ability to defend and find his teammates for open shots. This line moved from +4 to +1.5 or +1 once the Paul news was announced, but it’s surprising not to see Phoenix as a favorite. It would be stunning if the Suns don’t win this one outright. 

Prediction: Suns +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Over is 16-5 in the last 21 games the Suns have played when coming off a straight-up win, and it’s also 7-2 in the last nine the team has played against teams with winning records. Last night, Phoenix and Minnesota combined to score 241 points, which just goes to show you the kind of games that this squad is playing right now. The Suns are still second in the NBA in offensive rating on the year, and they have played at the sixth-fastest pace in the league since Paul went down with an injury. 

Paul might be back now, but it’d be surprising if the team doesn’t look to keep up the pace a bit. They’ll look to speed the Nuggets up in this one, as that would really play to their advantage against a Denver team that likes to slow it down and play through Jokic.

The Over has also been the play in Nuggets games recently, as it has hit in each of Denver’s last four games. It’s also 5-1 in the team’s last six contests. And for good measure, the Over is also 20-6 in the second half of the season when the Nuggets have played against teams with winning percentages of 70% or better under head coach Mike Malone.

Prediction: Over 231.5 (-110) 

Best bet

It’s a little surprising to see the block total for Jokic sitting at this number, as he’s averaging nearly one per game this season. Jokic also happens to be coming into this game after having recorded at least one block in each of his last 10 games, and he actually had three in Tuesday’s win over the Los Angeles Clippers. That was the fifth time in the last five games in which Jokic has had at least two blocks. 

The Joker has worked hard to become a better defender over the years, and he’s now facing a Suns team that has been playing through Ayton more often than usual. Ayton should be able to play rather well in this meeting with Denver, but the fact that he is going to have the ball rather often just means that Jokic will have a lot of opportunities to block shots. He should also be a threat to swat away drives by smaller, reckless players like Cam Payne. 

Overall, it’s just hard to see him not blocking at least one in this game, and it’d be pretty surprising if he doesn’t have multiple rejections. 

Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 blocks (-149)

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