Pacers vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Memphis Beats Up on Hobbled Indy

Memphis announced itself yet again on the national stage last night, and now has to face much less resistance against Indiana. Find out if our Pacers vs. Grizzlies picks see a letdown in store for the heavy home favorites tonight.

AJ Salah - Publishing Editor/Writer at
AJ Salah • Publishing Editor
Mar 24, 2022 • 10:27 ET • 4 min read
Desmond Bane Memphis Grizzlies NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Memphis Grizzlies had a time on national TV Wednesday night, overcoming 78 points from Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant to beat the Nets with Ja Morant sidelined.

The sequel may not be as exciting. 

As Memphis hosts the Indiana Pacers on a back-to-back, find out if they have enough left in the tank to cover a huge spread with our Grizzlies vs. Pacers NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, March 24.

Pacers vs Grizzlies odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Memphis opened as a -12.5 favorite and quickly moved to -11.5 before coming back up to opening as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 235.5, with some books moving down to 234.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pacers vs Grizzlies predictions

Predictions made on 3/24/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Pacers vs Grizzlies game info

Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast-Memphis, Bally Sports Indiana

Pacers vs Grizzlies betting preview

Key injuries

Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon PG (Out), Myles Turner C (Out), T.J. Warren SF (Out), Chris Duarte SG (Out), TJ McConnell PG (Out), Jalen Smith F (Out), Isaiah Jackson F (Out).
Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Doubtful). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Grizzlies.

Pacers vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

If Wednesday night proved anything, it's that the Grizzlies are probably the deepest team in the NBA. With a fringe MVP candidate sidelined, Memphis went toe-to-toe with dynamite performances from two of the planet's best basketball players, leading most of the way and taking the W. 

The Grizz had seven players score in double figures, chewing up a passive Brooklyn defense and ultimately tiring out the Nets — who managed just 16 fourth-quarter points — with their constant pressure and fast pace.

Speaking of pace, Memphis welcomes Indiana tonight, in a rematch with a team it beat by 33 points just over a week ago. The Pacers are currently going through the tanking motions, trotting out a G-League roster + their Kings newcomers, while their actual rotation is sitting with injuries of varying legitimacy.

We're getting to a point where we can probably bank on Memphis being very good without Morant. Even if its run without him earlier this season saw some beneficial opponent injury variance, this is pretty f***ing incredible: 

Let's assume Morant doesn't play again tonight, since coach Taylor Jenkins admits they don't know what's causing his knee soreness. Yikes. 

So, can what's, in theory, the NBA's best team put 13 points between itself and a replacement-level patchwork roster that's actively incentivized to lose? 

You only have to look at last week's game to see why the Pacers can't hope to slow Memphis down enough to compete. The Grizzlies carved through the Pacers' 26th-ranked defense like a Ginsu blade, scoring 135 points — a mark Indiana hasn't hit itself all season, let alone with practically its entire team sidelined.

The Grizzlies are scoring 121.2 points per game over their past 10, which balloons to 129.6 in Morant-less contests over that stretch. They're going to get theirs tonight, and you can discount most of the back-to-back "tried legs" factor given the home set and this team's depth. No one player was leaned on very hard in the Nets win, and likewise tonight, many bodies can step up if needed.

Memphis will continue running roughshod on a Pacers team that took a brutal loss to the bloody Kings last night and doesn't have the defense to stop anyone, or the guns to fire back against the onslaught awaiting them at FedExForum.    

This looks like a classic letdown spot, but back the Grizzlies in another blowout.

Prediction: Grizzlies -12 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

As we saw last night, Memphis is certainly not afraid to get into a firefight without Morant. The Grizzlies looked one of the most dangerous scoring duos in NBA history square in the eyes and said "try us". 

The question for this game becomes if the Pacers have enough gas in the tank themselves to carry their weight against a Top-10 defense on their own back-to-back. 

And honestly, we don't hate it. 

Memphis figures to get to around 120 as an absolute floor, in what's going to be a fast-paced, back-and-forth affair between two teams that are neglecting the brakes down the stretch (Memphis is third in pace through the last 10 games, Indiana's 11th, fractions out of the Top 10).

The Grizzlies can have lapses on defense, and while they tend to play better as a unit on that end without Morant, could still get complacent, especially if they're up big early. 

Indiana scored 102 points the last time these two met — for argument's sake it averages 119.4 over its last eight games — and it still went Over this number. Back it to happen again. 

Prediction: Over 234.5 (-110)

Best bet

This Pacers team just lost a heartbreaker last night to one of the saddest franchises in modern pro sports, had to get on a plane overnight, and now stagger into an arena that, also just last night, hosted a game with just about the polar opposite outcome for its team.

Memphis is feeling itself right now and with good reason. It's a deep squad of two-way players that have amazing chemistry and attack as viciously as an actual friggin' grizzly bear. 

The Grizzlies' +17.5 net rating without Morant is a safe indicator that they should pummel a team as depleted as Indiana, especially when said team is coming in steaming, but has no resources or motivation to do anything about it. 

Six of Memphis' last eight wins have come by double-digits, and four of those have been by 20+. The frustration of the Pacers' lost season is only going to be compounded by this matchup — don't expect them to rally out of nowhere here.

Pick: Grizzlies -12 (-110)

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