The Phoenix Suns head to L.A. after splitting homecourt in the first two games of their Western Conference quarterfinal versus the Los Angeles Lakers, and could be without their captain and veteran point guard for a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.
Chris Paul, who injured his right shoulder in the series opener, labored through the injury in limited minutes of Phoenix’s 109-102 home loss to Los Angeles on Tuesday night. The NBA betting odds have the Suns as 7-point underdogs for Game 3 – a spread that reflects the shaky status of Paul.
Check out free NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Lakers on May 27.
Suns vs Lakers game info
• Location: STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, May 27, 2021
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Suns vs Lakers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles opened as low as a 5.5-point home favorite and climbed as high as -7 before buy back on the underdog moved this spread to -6.5. According to FanDuel sportsbooks, 64 percent of bets are taking the points with the Suns which has 61 percent of the money riding on Phoenix. As for the total, the Over/Under opened as low as 210 points and climbed to 212.5 before coming back down to 211, with 82 percent of total bets on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameSuns vs Lakers series odds
Suns: +250
Lakers: -325
Suns vs Lakers betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Chris Paul F (Questionable), Abdel Nader F (Out).
Lakers: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 11-1 Over/Under in their last 12 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Lakers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Paul hasn’t bubbled up on the official injury report but considering his Game 2 performance and just how difficult the simplest aspects of his game looked, it wouldn’t shock me if he sat Game 3.
Head coach Monty Williams played him only 22:47 on Monday and just under seven minutes in the second half, with Paul posting a minus-2 rating on the night, dishing out five assists with three turnovers and shooting 2 for 5 from the field. As good as CP3 is, the Suns may be better off parking an injured Paul instead of him becoming a liability.
Phoenix has solid backcourt depth and Cameron Payne is playing very well in relief of Paul at the point. He finished Game 2 with 19 points, seven assists and just two turnovers in almost 33 minutes of work but did shrink in crunch time – as did most of the Suns without Paul as a calming force.
However, Payne’s playing his best basketball of the season right now, averaging more than 15 points per game over his last eight outings. He’s a better option on both ends than a one-armed man and Phoenix’s offensive effort won’t be limited if the starting job lands on Payne.
There’s not much separating these teams – even with Paul dinged up – besides the final four minutes of Game 2 in which L.A. outscored Phoenix 16-10. The Suns showed a lot of patience and character after falling behind to the Lakers early on and battled back to tie the game midway through the fourth quarter despite being down 15 points in the frame.
Phoenix may not win Game 3 outright, but it’ll stay within the current spread. And, if you wait until Paul’s status is updated (expecting bad news) and the Lakers-loving public piles on, you could catch a couple extra points on a team that’s 11-5 ATS in its past 16 games as an underdog.
PREDICTION: Phoenix +7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The totals continue to tick downward for this series, falling from 214 in Game 1 and 211 in Game 2 to 210 points for Thursday’s Game 3 in Los Angeles.
Phoenix was more aggressive in Game 2, drawing 23 personal fouls and shooting 30 foul shots – making 28 of those – compared to only 18 fouls drawn and a 10-for-12 performance from the stripe in Game 1. The Lakers’ attack is one of the best at attracting whistles, with L.A. attempting 59 free throws in the first two games of the series (44 makes), including a 27-for-31 effort from the line in Game 2.
The physicality of this series will only intensify as it swings to Los Angeles, which means more calls, more foul shots, and more scoring with the clock stopped – the key ingredient for Overs. The Lakers are among the best teams in the league at drawing fouls, averaging 25.1 free throws per game inside the Staples Center, where LeBron has been known to persuade the refs into weak whistles.
With the Lakers shooting just 27 for 90 from beyond the arc in their three postseason contests, getting to the line and turning defense into offense is the core of their strategy. Los Angeles has pestered the Suns into a total of 29 turnovers in the previous two games, converting those errors into 39 easy points. This is where the Suns miss a healthy Paul.
Phoenix doesn’t shy away on the road though. This squad boasted an offensive rating on 115.5 as a visitor – sixth highest in the NBA – and owned an effective field goal percentage of 55.8 in opposing gyms, which was third best in the league. The Suns are 21-15 Over/Under on the road, including an 11-1 O/U mark in their last 12 away tilts.
Devin Booker got the “royal sampler” of Lakers defenders in Game 2, with Frank Vogel throwing anyone in a yellow jersey at him in hopes of busting up Booker’s rhythm. While the Suns’ star shooting guard went 7 of 17 from the field, he offset that with aggressive play of his own, going 17 for 17 from the foul line and finishing with 31 points in the loss.
PREDICTION: Over 210 (-110)
Player prop pick
We went Under 24.5 points for LeBron James in Game 2 and phewwwww… we just got it, with the King finishing the win with only 23 points.
LeBron went 9 for 16 from the field, including four 3-pointers Tuesday, but beyond some fast-break dunks in the first quarter, he didn’t attempt a shot from inside the paint in the final three frames. James was also just 1 for 1 from the foul line despite L.A. attempting 31 total free throws. It was James’ quietest game from the stripe all season.
LeBron’s been far less aggressive since returning from an ankle injury at the end of the regular season but looked like he was feeling stronger in Game 2, and could ride the momentum of some clutch buckets into a solid Game 3 performance.
He’s failed to score more than 25 points in eight straight outings but did hang 38 points on the Suns back in March. We like the King to return to form in front of the home crowd Thursday.
PREDICTION: LeBron James Over 24.5 Points (-115)
Suns vs Lakers betting card
- Phoenix +7 (-110)
- Over 210 (-110)
- LeBron James Over 24.5 Points (-115)
Picks made on 5/26/2021 at 3:15 p.m. ET
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