A beatdown. Blowout. Squash. Or my personal favorite, an ass waxing.
Call it what you want, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 42-point loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals was ugly.
Reigning NBA MVP and OKC superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dubbed the loss a punch in the mouth and lambasted his team for the lack of energy and urgency.
That chatter means SGA has to set the tone for Game 4 and while he can fill up the bucket, he’s also going to have to do the little things to make sure the Thunder don’t botch their series lead.
Here are my best NBA picks and Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Monday, May 26.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
- Best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists/5+ rebounds
(+190) - SGP pick
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5+ rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points
(+250)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ Assists/5+ Rebounds (+190 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has almost been as potent a passer as he has been a scorer in the Western Conference finals.
Through three games, the Oklahoma City Thunder star has handed out a total of 23 assists while his advanced metrics show a collective 37 potential assists for SGA in that span. He topped his assist total of 6.5 O/U in the first two games with nine and eight dimes but stayed short of 6.5 O/U in Game 3, recording six assists in a limited 28 minutes.
This passing prowess is a spike compared to past series and the regular season, with the Minnesota Timberwolves cutting off the key and being much more aggressive in their approach to SGA. The Wolves didn’t drop cover in screening situations as much in Game 3 and blitzed Gilgeous-Alexander more to force the ball out of his hands.
His assist projections for tonight bounce between 5.9 and 6.6 but given he’s averaging more than 12 potential assists to start this series, I’m on the higher side of SGA’s assists. The market is also convinced he’ll dish out seven or more dimes, with the Over 6.5 surging to -155 and some books showing 7.5 O/U.
Gilgeous-Alexander has also been active on the glass. He grabbed five rebounds in Game 1 and had three boards in Game 2 before finishing with only two in an abbreviated effort in Game 3’s blowout.
Game 4 player models all sit at 5.0 rebounds or higher, with a ceiling of 5.8 boards, and his rebounding prop total is at 4.5 O/U with the Over juiced to -145.
His advanced stats show 7.0 rebounding chance per game and with Oklahoma City potentially playing smaller lineups — going away from the two-center sets — Shai’s impact on the glass could also increase.
The combo prop of rebounds + assists opened as high as 12.5 O/U with most books now dealing Over 11.5 -136. However, a same-game parlay of 7+ Rebounds/5+ Rebounds — the most likely combo according to projections — is paying +190.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5+ rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 7+ assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points
Player models sit at 5.0 boards or higher for SGA. He’s grabbed five rebounds or more in seven of his 14 postseason games and is averaging 7.0 potential rebounds in this series.
His potential assists is above 12 per game and with the Wolves blitzing the ball of out of his hands and asking OKC to hurt them from the perimeter, SGA is forecasted for close to seven assists tonight.
All of his scoring models call for more than 25 points. Minnesota did a good job early in Game 3 at slowing him down and while he might not make it to 30 points, he should score 25-plus.
Thunder vs Timberwolves betting resources
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves prediction
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves props & best bets
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay
- Anthony Edwards predictions
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