The Minnesota Timberwolves have a genuine chance to tie the Western Conference Finals in Game 4. The Oklahoma City Thunder may have won the first two games of the series in routs, but Minnesota quickly found a rout of its own on Saturday night.
Any Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions before tip at 8:30 ET on Monday, May 26, need to recognize Minnesota has more clutch-time success lately than Oklahoma City does, and that could prove crucial tonight.
With that in mind, I've created an SGP using my favorite NBA picks for this Game 4 tilt.
Thunder vs Timberwolves SGP - May 26
Timberwolves moneyline
Over 219
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 31.5 points
The Minnesota Timberwolves lost more clutch games this regular season than anyone else in the NBA, going 20-26 in games within five points in the final five minutes. An offensive rating of 106.4 in those moments — No. 20 in the NBA — is mostly to blame.
To put that into further context: The Timberwolves had an offensive rating of 115.7 across the whole season, No. 8, and 121.9 in the final 21 games, No. 2. When Julius Randle returned to the lineup to start March after an adductor strain cost him February, Minnesota suddenly worked out nearly all its kinks.
The Timberwolves’ offensive rating in clutch time climbed then and climbed further in four postseason tests. Minnesota has played 14 minutes of clutch concerns and scored more than 1.5 points per possession in those minutes.
That stands out simply because a 4-0 clutch record in the postseason should embue the Timberwolves with confidence if tonight is actually tight in the final minutes.
The Oklahoma City Thunder lack as many options at creation, part of why they're just 4-2 in the clutch this postseason with an offensive rating of 109.4.
Clutch time is the only time Oklahoma City’s offense really falters. These were the two best offenses in the regular season’s closing weeks. In their seven total matchups this season, five have gone Over their totals.
Adding some doubt in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a parlay with the Over creates an escalated payout. The MVP should look to involve his teammates more tonight.
On Saturday, he settled for five 3-pointers on 13 field-goal attempts. Since the first game of the postseason, Gilgeous-Alexander has not been that dependent on threes.
Credit Minnesota’s defensive adjustments, picking up SGA further up court, thus making it more difficult for him to get downhill. The natural adjustment to that will be moving the ball to his teammates, capitalizing on the Timberwolves’ gap help.
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