If a playoff series does not start until a road team wins, the Minnesota Timberwolves made sure the Western Conference Finals haven't truly started. After two blowout wins for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota responded with an even bigger rout at home in Game 3.
Shooting 50% from deep certainly helped, and my Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions for Game 4 expect at least some of that shooting to carry over, particularly from Jaden McDaniels.
I break it all down with my NBA picks for this 8:30 p.m. ET tip on Monday, May 26.
Who will win Thunder vs Timberwolves Game 4?
At some point, this series should have a close game. Right? These teams are too talented to have one of them delivering a clunker in every game.
Now that the Minnesota Timberwolves have found some things that work, Game 4 should provide that tension. A three-point spread certainly expects it to.
Minnesota may be the underdog, but it also has much more experience in clutch moments and more players who can create shots. After going 20-26 in clutch games in the regular season — the most clutch games in the NBA, with the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 24 the fewest — the Timberwolves have gone 4-0 in those moments this postseason.
Trusting Minnesota’s offense in a tight game may have been foolish all season, but a 155.2 offensive rating in four clutch games this postseason demands some faith now, and it is an edge that should propel the Timberwolves to tying this series.
Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 threes (+100 at bet365)
Everyone on Minnesota shot better in Game 3. There may never have been a better display of role players playing better at home than on the road. Of the eight Timberwolves entrenched in the rotation, only Mike Conley shot worse than 40% from beyond the arc, and his 2 of 6 was nothing to scoff at.
Jaden McDaniels did not explode offensively, but he went 2-for-4 from long range to get him to 10 points. His offensive workload in this series may vary given how much defensive effort he needs to slow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but McDaniels will keep shooting from deep.
He has hit 38.6% of his 3-pointers this postseason while attempting 3.4 per game, and that has all improved in this series, going 7-for-15 (46.7%).
McDaniels has long shot better at home — 38.4% this season compared to 28.0% on the road. That alone should provide value in trusting him in Game 4. And Oklahoma City’s willingness to give up corner threes increases McDaniels' volume. It is not his best shot, making only 32% of his corner treys this season, but he is willing to take it when this opportunity arises.
Anthony Edwards finally finding some driving space in Game 3 opened up those opportunities at the Thunder’s behest. Five of Edwards’s six assists were for 3-pointers, including two to McDaniels in the third quarter — his two makes.
Consider that your third reason to back McDaniels on Memorial Day. He is shooting well, Oklahoma City gives up more corner threes than anyone else in the NBA, and Edwards is increasing that trend with his dishes off drives. To enjoy that logic at even odds is a value that cannot be turned down.
Thunder vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 threes
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Thunder team total Under 100.5
Pairing an Edwards assists prop with McDaniels' 3-pointers makes a bounty of sense. When the Timberwolves are hitting from deep, Edwards will have more assists. The logic is that simple, and it was clear on Saturday night.
That also helps hold down Oklahoma City’s offense, as odd as that may sound.
The Thunder struggle in the halfcourt. Minnesota’s best defense is actually scoring on offense, thus cutting down on Oklahoma City’s chances in transition. If Saturday’s shooting continues to any genuine degree, even if the Timberwolves do not go 20-for-40 from deep again, that will cut into the Thunder’s scoring.
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Thunder vs Timberwolves odds
Thunder vs Timberwolves live odds
Thunder vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -3.5 (-105) | Minnesota +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -160 | Minnesota +135
- Over/Under: Over 218.5 (-110) | Under 218.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Thunder vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread not moving from where it closed before Game 3 makes sense despite that blowout. Oddsmakers know better than to overreact to any one game.
- The total, however, climbed two points before Game 3’s tip, and that 218 has become 218.5 for Game 4. Credit now-validated faith in Minnesota’s shooting regressing to the mean for that rise on Saturday and steadiness at the higher number now.
- The biggest key to this game going Over its total for a third straight will be the Timberwolves’ ball security. Giving up only 10 turnovers in Game 3 kept the Thunder to just 15 points off those turnovers and only six fast-break points.
Thunder vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota is 5-1 both against the spread and outright at home this postseason, while Oklahoma City is 0-6 ATS on the road this postseason. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Thunder vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Monday, 5-26-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Thunder vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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