Anthony Edwards showed up in Game 3 of these Western Conference Finals. The Minnesota Timberwolves’ superstar poured in 16 first-quarter points to set the decisive tone against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday. Edwards outscored Oklahoma City on his own in that frame, and that commenced a rout as this series suddenly got interesting.
But Edwards did more than just score the ball, and my Anthony Edwards prop picks focus on his playmaking first.
Here are my best NBA picks and Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions for Monday, May 26.
Anthony Edwards player prop picks
- Best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
(-105) - SGP pick
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 points — 1Q
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 rebounds
(+450)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Anthony Edwards best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists (-1-5 at bet365)
Anthony Edwards not only scored 16 points in that first quarter, one the Minnesota Timberwolves won 34-14. He also dished out a pair of assists for 3-pointers. By the time he sat down in a 42-point win, Edwards had set up six buckets, five of them being 3-pointers.
The Oklahoma City Thunder always gives up threes, particularly corner threes. That is part of its defensive design, and it paid off in Games 1 and 2. But two things shifted on Saturday.
First of all, Minnesota’s role players shot better at home. That was to be expected, particularly from Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid, both of whom shot better than 40% from deep at Target Center this season. Jaden McDaniels shot 38.4% from long range at home this year, notable given he shot just 28.0% on the road. When those encouraging percentages became realities, more of Edwards’s passes became assists.
Secondly, Edwards took to driving again. He had not gotten into the lane in Games 1 and 2, both a criticism of him and a praise of the Thunder defense. When he started finding those creases, Oklahoma City had to collapse on him. That set up open shooters.
McDaniels benefited twice. Nickeil Alexander-Walker benefited twice. Reid hit one such 3.
The Thunder will keep giving up those looks. It is their design. And it has worked rather well this season. One hot shooting game will not dissuade that intention.
That choice sets up Minnesota’s shooters as much as Edwards does, but Edwards gets the nod in the box score.
Anthony Edwards same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 assists
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 points — 1Q
Anthony Edwards Over 7.5 rebounds
This is not a literal must-win for the Timberwolves. But it may as well be.
And Edwards should set that kind of intense tone right away, just as he did on Saturday. He was 6-of-8 from the field in the first quarter, including 3-of-5 from deep. Add in two transition dunks, and Edwards had Target Center at full throttle within minutes.
Those dunks may not come tonight. Oklahoma City should be better with the ball. One would at least expect that. And perhaps he will not take five 3-pointers again. But even with those caveats, Edwards would have cleared this prop in Game 3. An aggressive opening frame should be expected, and with that, this prop should be manageable.
This originally included Edwards notching a double-double, in part because he has reached 10+ assists once this postseason, creating two viable pathways to that payday. But that same-game parlay paid just +525, and that is not enough of a boost to justify straying from Over 7.5 rebounds, particularly once that fell to 7.5 from an earlier market of 8.5.
Edwards has grabbed nine rebounds in each game of this series. Oklahoma City was a poor rebounding team all season, and this series has begun to emphasize that.
Thunder vs Timberwolves betting resources
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves prediction
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves props & best bets
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander predictions
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