Just when you think you have the Western Conference finals figured out, they flip the script.
The Minnesota Timberwolves unleashed hell on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, blasting it by a thousand points and tightening the series count to 2-1.
Minnesota’s blowout win makes it very difficult to sift through the wreckage and weigh which player performances were isolated and which ones can carry over to tonight.
Here are my favorite NBA player props and NBA picks for the Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 showdown on May 26.
Best Thunder vs Timberwolves props
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Reid o10.5 points (-125) -
Hartenstein u7.5 points (+110) - Williams o1.5 threes (-130)
Thunder vs Timberwolves player props for May 25
Naz Reid Over 10.5 points (-125 at bet365)
The Minnesota Timberwolves needed something from super-sub Naz Reid in Game 3, and the most popular man in Minneapolis delivered.
Reid played only 19 minutes in the one-sided win, but registered 10 points, eight rebounds, and four personal fouls. He was also 2-for-3 from 3-point range after shooting a collective 0-for-12 in the two games in Oklahoma City.
Reid is a much better shooter inside the Target Center, finishing the season with a 41% success rate from distance at home compared to just 34.5% away from Minnesota.
He's scored only 10 and four points in the opening two games of the series, shooting a combined 4-for-19 while playing 28 minutes in relief.
His Game 4 projections all sit north of 12 points with a ceiling close to 14, while his minutes models range from 24 to 27.5. My number comes out to 12.9 points from Reid tonight, which should have the Over 10.5 listed closer to -175 rather than the -125 asking price at bet365.
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 7.5 points (+110 at bet365)
Isaiah Hartenstein isn’t having the same impact in the Western Conference Finals as he did against Denver in Round 2. The Thunder’s 7-footer found his minutes hacked down to just 19 in Game 3’s loss, with just five of those coming in the second half.
Part of that was the T-Wolves’ runaway win, but OKC head coach Mark Daigneault opted to go with a smaller lineup to start the second half and it somewhat worked, with the Thunder surging back with an 11-2 start to the third quarter before Minnesota landed a KO punch with a 20-4 run.
Oklahoma City could rotate Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe into the lineup more, in place of the two-center set Daigneault has been using. It would make the Thunder more active and versatile on defense, and the offense has shown a better output with Holmgren as the solo center.
We’ve already seen market movement away from Hartenstein’s point production for Game 4, with some books opening as high as 8.5 points (Under -141) and quickly dropping to 7.5 (Under +114). That adjustment has slowed down Under money.
Hartenstein has scored just six points in each of the past two games of this series, as Minnesota clogs up the interior and forces play to the perimeter. His Game 4 projections vary based on his expected floor time, sitting between 7.4 and 9.5 points with his minutes around 27.5.
However, he’s logged 19 and 20 minutes in two of the three games so far, and with OKC potentially tinkering with a quicker lineup, his usage could plummet. My number comes out just south of six points tonight.
Jalen Williams Over 1.5 threes (-130 at bet365)
Jalen Williams didn’t let OKC’s big loss shake his confidence for Game 4, telling the media things could always be worse after the 42-point shit-stomping.
To steal a line from Ted Lasso, being a goldfish is probably the best approach for the Thunder tonight, and Williams' unwavering optimism will show from beyond the arc.
The Oklahoma City guard isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep and has made two or more triples in two of the first three games of this series while recording at least two in nine of his 14 postseason games.
Williams' outside touch has been much improved against Minnesota, firing at a 38.5% clip from deep after shooting sub-30% in the first two series.
The Timberwolves' defensive game plan has plugged up the paint and forced OKC to the perimeter. All five of Williams’ 3-point makes have come from wide-open shots, with eight of his total 13 attempts going up with no defender within six feet.
His Game 4 forecast ranges from 1.7 to 1.9 triples, and the ceiling is higher after going 2-for-5 from distance in just 25 minutes in Game 3.
Thunder vs Timberwolves betting resources
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves prediction
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves props & best bets
- Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay
- Anthony Edwards predictions
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