With the explosion of offense these days, most NBA teams are looking more and more like the “Seven Seconds or Less Suns”. But there are still a few NBA teams that like to win by playing in the mud, grinding out a win at a low pace, and wearing the opposition down with their persistence and physicality.
The Houston Rockets and New York Knicks are two such teams, and they’re squaring off in Madison Square Garden on Wednesday, January 17. It's no surprise this game total is the lowest one on today's NBA odds board.
My free NBA picks for the Rockets vs. Knicks believe Jalen Brunson is likely to make his return to the court on Wednesday, and his presence should tip the scales decisively in favor of New York.
Rockets vs Knicks odds
Rockets vs Knicks predictions
The New York Knicks have now seen both sides of the coin with the addition of O.G. Anunoby.
When healthy, they have a ceiling that lets them go toe to toe with the NBA’s best teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves. In the 565 possessions O.G. has played with the Knicks, they have an incredible +24.1-point differential.
Their defense is much improved, the spacing in the starting lineup is on point, and they’re finally a team that can win games in multiple ways.
But the cost has been felt as well. In the two games they played just without Jalen Brunson (who missed time with a minor calf contusion), their offense went to pieces. New York has no one on the roster who can consistently create advantages as a ball handler other than Julius Randle, and teams are just overloading help to him and forcing him to make a play.
Randle has struggled to be efficient and maintain defensive intensity in Brunson’s absence, and it led to some ugly minutes against the Magic in particular. The Knicks used to be able to hand the offense to RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to inject some life into the offense, but now they're entirely dependent on Brunson.
With Brunson, New York has a powerful one-two punch that can beat opponents from the perimeter and outmuscle them inside. The Knicks play a patient, low-turnover game, and they get enough shooting and defensive playmaking from their role players to keep defenses honest.
While the Houston Rockets have a strong defense, they do play some liabilities like Jalen Green who the Knicks will happily (and relentlessly) go matchup hunting against. I think the outcome of this game hinges largely on whether Brunson plays, and I’m betting he does.
Brunson warmed up before both the Grizzlies and Magic games, and it was a minor surprise when he didn’t play in the latter. He’s not the kind of player who likes to take days off and given how close it seems he was to coming back on Monday, I feel confident he’s in the action again for Wednesday’s game.
With Brunson in the fold, the Knicks are one of the seven or eight best teams in the NBA. Houston has also wilted against quality opponents on the road this season. I expect this line to keep moving ahead of tip on Wednesday so I’m happy to take it at -4.5 while I still can.
My best bet: Knicks -4.5 (-118 at 888Sport)
Rockets vs Knicks same-game parlay
Knicks -5
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points
Dillon Brooks Over 0.5 steals
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Brunson is looking like a sure bet to make his first All-Star team this season, with career highs in 3-point shooting and points per game. In the five games before Brunson got hurt, he was averaging 27 ppg and only had less than 27 once.
Dillon Brooks is one of the most rugged guard defenders in the NBA. While he’s liable to foul himself out in key moments because of his aggressive play, the one thing you can always say about him is he makes offensive players feel him.
Even though I expect Brunson to return, he’s not going to play 48 minutes. When Jalen is out of the game Miles McBride gets a lot of opportunities to run the offense. While he’s shooting the ball well and earning his keep on defense, a lot of offensive possessions are stalling out. Deuce also tends to kill his dribble in traffic, which makes him easy prey for a ball hawk like Brooks.
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Rockets vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
New York opened as -3.5 favorites against the Rockets, and some early money on the home team has seen that edge grow to -5.5 at some sportsbooks. The Knicks are coming off a pair of uninspiring performances, but again, I think Brunson comes back and they look like one of the Top 4 teams in the East.
Houston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. The Rockets have also covered in just six of their 18 road games this season, one of the worst records in the Association.
Their offense hasn't traveled well, and I can foresee a scenario in which the Knicks leverage O.G. to disrupt Alperen Sengun to such a degree they struggle to find consistent buckets in the paint. If Houston is forced to rely on its shooting, the Rockets are going to have a difficult time hanging in this one.
The total opened between 218.5 and 219.5 and is still available at either price. Those are downright '90s basketball numbers compared to the scoring barrage that most teams are engaged in on a nightly basis.
The Rockets are one of the NBA’s best transition defenses because they do their best to stop allowing transition chances in the first place. Per Cleaning the Glass, just 11.5% of Houston's opponent possessions come in transition, by far the best mark in the league.
The Knicks offense is increasingly reliant on transition opportunities when Brunson is off the court. If this line goes Under it will be because the Rockets manage to hold New York to attempts in the half-court.
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Rockets vs Knicks betting trend to know
The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Knicks.
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Rockets vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 17, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Space City Network, MSG |
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