The Miami Heat are clinging to slim hopes of avoiding the play-in path, and that starts with beating the Toronto Raptors again this afternoon to wrap up the regular season.
The Heat are 15.5-point favorites here in the latest NBA odds and never trailed while breezing to a 125-103 victory over the Raptors on Friday, with Nikola Jovic’s 22 points leading six double-digit scorers for Miami.
If Erik Spoelstra’s men are going to get up to the No. 6 seed, they need a win at Kaseya Center and losses for the Orlando Magic and either the Philadelphia 76ers or Indiana Pacers. Read on for my free Raptors vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for this Sunday, April 14 matchup.
Raptors vs Heat predictions
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Jimmy Butler’s ability to raise his game in the postseason is probably the biggest reason for optimism about the Miami Heat’s prospects despite a bumpy 45-36 record, but I’m also expecting Bam Adebayo to flip the switch as we head into the business end of the schedule.
Adebayo looked more like himself on Friday, bouncing back from consecutive offensive duds to make eight of his 10 shots and finish with 19 points.
After a strong finish to March, with 21 points or more in three straight outings, he’s been more erratic in April, so the uptick in production last time out bodes well. Miami need his scoring in a big way, especially with Terry Rozier still out and Duncan Robinson listed as questionable.
The Heat’s focus may soon be shifting to a play-in date, but there’s every reason to chase a win today and hope for some luck elsewhere. That should pave the way for Bam to dominate against an undermanned and undersized Toronto team.
The Toronto Raptors will again be asking Kelly Olynyk to do the heavy frontcourt lifting and there’s not much depth or experience on the visitors’ bench.
It’ll take Adebayo’s A-game for the Heat to come anywhere close to replicating last year’s run to the Finals and he should be able to ramp up this afternoon. I’m taking the Over on these Bam Adebayo odds.
Raptors vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 points
R.J. Barrett Over 20.5 points
Under 220.5
Assuming R.J. Barrett logs his usual minutes in this season finale, he’s going to be the No.1 option for Toronto again. He filled it up on Friday with 35 points on 13-for-18 shooting, and he’s scored 22 or more points in seven straight games.
Plus, Immanuel Quickley has been ruled out with a hip issue. Don’t be surprised if Barrett soaks up a large chunk of those available shots on the way to another efficient performance.
I’m also jumping on the Under for my SGP, in part because we may see a lot of garbage time here if the Heat build a lead and other scores are going against them.
While both teams have trended towards the Over lately — and got there on Friday — Miami has peppered the Under all season (34-47). The Raptors have been held below 105 points in consecutive contests and now there are fewer offensive options available to Darko Rajakovic.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Raptors vs Heat odds
Raptors vs Heat live odds
Raptors vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +15.5 | Miami -15.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +906 | Miami -1343
- Over/Under: Over 222 | Under 222
Raptors vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Even after the Heat cruised to a blowout win on Friday, it’s natural to have some hesitation about laying so many points with the hosts. We saw a 14-point line for the prior meeting and that’s been nudged up here, with the spread opening at 16.5 with some sportsbooks before settling at 15.5 or 16.
- Miami is only 21-19 at home this season, but Toronto is just 6-19 since the All-Star break and Rajakovic has been happy to give his bench extended opportunities.
- I’ve already made the case for the Under. It’s worth acknowledging that the Over is 8-2 in the Heat’s past 10 games and 7-3 for the Raptors in that same span, but both teams are missing key bucket-getters this afternoon.
- The Under has been a winner in three of the past four head-to-head meetings.
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Raptors vs Heat trend
Despite limping towards the finish line, the Raptors have hit the first-half moneyline in six of their last 12 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Heat.
Raptors vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet One, Bally Sun |
Raptors vs Heat latest injuries
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