The NHL playoffs continue tonight as the Vegas Golden Knights host the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of this first-round series.
My Stars vs. Golden Knights predictions for April 29 are all in on the Under. Find out more as I explain my NHL picks below.
Stars vs Golden Knights prediction
My best bet
Under 5.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
I cashed on the Under 5.5 in Game 3 of this series, and I'm going right back to the well in Game 4. There have been five or fewer total goals scored in each of the past two games of this opening-round matchup, a trend that exists due to the tremendous play of both starting netminders.
Game 3’s loss was certainly not on Logan Thompson, who stopped 43 of 46 pucks for a commanding .935 SV%. He has now allowed two or fewer goals in 10 of his past 14 outings, boasting a 10-3 record with a .926 SV% and 2.14 GAA over that stretch.
However, the lack of offensive inefficiency to help out Thompson could be a problem moving forward. Among the 16 playoff teams this postseason, the Vegas Golden Knights rank second-to-last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
You can’t get away with little offensive creation against the Dallas Stars, a team that finished the regular season ranked third in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this tremendous two-way team is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has gone blow-for-blow with Thompson.
Oettinger is 8-3 over his past 11 starts with a .934 SV% and 1.69 GAA. There were five or fewer total goals scored in nine of those 11 outings.
Both goaltenders are seeing the puck extremely well, and I believe this recent trend of low-scoring games will continue Monday evening.
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Stars vs Golden Knights same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5.5
Stars moneyline
Just like the best bet, we cashed on this identical SGP in Game 3 and are once again going back to the well in Game 4. Aside from the goaltending battle, Dallas has been the better team in this series despite the 2-1 deficit.
This postseason, the Stars outrank the Knights in xGF/60, xGA/60, and expected goal differential per 60 minutes. Vegas’ home ice advantage will likely play a role on Monday, but I don’t think it offsets those aforementioned variables.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Golden Knights odds
Stars vs Golden Knights live odds
Stars vs Golden Knights opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas -1.5 | Vegas +1.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +101 | Vegas -114
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Stars vs Golden Knights moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas opened as a –114 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I think there will be a lot of give-and-take in this market considering the Stars have looked like the better team, but Vegas is always a tough out on home ice in the playoffs.
- The total opened at 5.5 or six, depending on the book.
- That market will also likely continue to bounce between those two totals as the public generally favors the Over whenever there is a matchup between two teams with a ton of scoring talent, but goaltending should be kept in mind.
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Stars vs Golden Knights trend
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in 17 of the past 23 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Golden Knights.
Stars vs Golden Knights game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Stars vs Golden Knights latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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