We've got eight games on the NBA betting board this Sunday, beginning with an afternoon clash between the Nets and Raptors and ending on the West Coast as the Clippers host the Hornets.
While it's always tempting to back stars and bet the Over on their NBA player prop totals, sometimes wagering on the Under seems like the more profitable play — especially when players are struggling or facing a tough matchup.
That's what we're doing as we fade three players with our NBA prop picks for Sunday, November 7.
NBA player props for November 7
Picks made on 11/7/2021 at 10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Less charitable Harden
Nobody seems to have been hurt more by the league's crackdown on offensive players trying to draw fouls than James Harden. The three-time NBA scoring leader was notorious for initiating foul calls and getting to the charity stripe, and he averaged more than 10 free throw attempts per game in six straight seasons with the Rockets from 2015 to 2020.
Even last season, his first year with Brooklyn, The Beard took 7.7 free throw attempts per game despite sharing shots with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. This season, however, Harden has seen his free throw attempts fall off a cliff — and his scoring totals along with them. The Over/Under on Harden's points total is set at 20.5 against Toronto today, a number he has surpassed in just one of nine games this season.
In the one contest where he went Over that number, he scored 29 points against the Pacers on October 29 but needed 19 free throw attempts. In his other eight games, he has averaged just 2.9 FTA per game. With Harden averaging 17.7 points per game, expect another lower-scoring game from him this afternoon against a Raptors team that ranks fourth in the league in scoring defense with 100.4 ppg.
Pick: James Harden Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Glass half empty
Cleveland big man Jarrett Allen has been a terror on the boards this season, averaging 11.1 rebounds per game. That said, there's reason to think his Over/Under of 11.5 tonight might be a tad too high.
Allen has grabbed at least 15 rebounds in three straight games but those contests came against the Raptors, Blazers, and Hornets — none of whom have the physical talent down low that the Knicks possess, as New York power forward Julius Randle is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game himself while center Mitchell Robinson pulls down 8.6 rpg in just 28.6 minutes per night.
Not only will Allen have to fight on the glass against those two, but he'll also have to compete for rebounds against his own teammate in rookie Evan Mobley, who has pulled down double-digit boards in four of his last eight games.
Pick: Jarrett Allen Under 11.5 rebounds (-105 at PointsBet)
Take off the Rozier-colored glasses
The Hornets road trip to California continues as they head to Staples Center to face the Los Angeles Clippers tonight as 5-point dogs. The Hornets are coming off an embarrassing 30-point beatdown in Sacramento and prior to that lost 114-92 to the Warriors.
Charlotte guard Terry Rozier missed five games earlier in the season with an ankle injury and while he returned last weekend he hasn't looked great. He had one impressive performance against the Cavs on Monday, where he scored 23 points, but he needed 22 shots — including 11 attempts from three-point range — to get to that mark.
In his last two games, he's been held to five and nine points, respectively, and he's now averaging just 11.4 ppg on 30.2-percent shooting. The Hornets have plenty of other scoring options with Miles Bridges, LaMelo Ball, and Gordon Hayward all averaging over 18 ppg, so they don't need to force the issue with an underperforming Rozier.
The Clippers haven't looked like contenders without Kawhi Leonard but they've still played tough on the defensive end of the floor, ranking second in the league in defensive efficiency and allowing the sixth-fewest ppg (102.1). Expect another off night from Rozier and take the Under on his points total.
Pick: Terry Rozier Under 16.5 points (-110 at bet365)
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