Best NBA Player Props Today: It's Not Good to Be the Kings

Prop bet #1: Alpie Attack

I remain all in on the Alperen Sengun bandwagon. In addition to increasingly liking his chances as a dark horse candidate to win Most Improved Player, I’m going to keep hammering his points prop in games where he doesn’t have to go against elite rim protectors with size and strength.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, so he’s definitely an elite defender. But he earned that award playing as a weak side shot blocker, a power forward beside Steven Adams while only flirting with minutes at center. Except there is no Adams this season, nor is there a Brandon Clarke, and Xavier Tillman’s status is questionable. The more minutes Jaren plays at center, the more likely he is to end up in foul trouble as he did again in the Memphis Grizzlies' Sunday loss to the Boston Celtics.

The Houston Rockets center has not only clearly become more skilled, but he’s also taller and physically stronger. He’s isolated against both Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James this season already, bumped them off their spot, and gone right through them to score. 

I like his chances against whatever combination of big men the Grizzlies can cobble together to guard him on Wednesday. Alpie has scored 23 points or more in five straight games, and I like him to hit 21 or more again tonight.

Alperen Sengun prop: Over 20.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Road to Zion

The New Orleans Pelicans are treading water at 7-7. They’ve dealt with another tidal wave of injuries and have played far from inspiring basketball to open the season.

But none of that matters next to what took place in their last game against the Sacramento Kings because Zion Williamson finally looks like himself again. Zion went 12 of 16 from the field against the Kings for 26 points. Fifteen of those 16 shot attempts came in the restricted area. The blowout was on so early that he didn’t even play a full 30 minutes.

Zion has a habit of starting slowly and rounding into form as the season progresses, and his performance last game suggests he’s finally found his groove. Williamson’s game is predicated on going left and getting to the cup and finishing. 

It’s beautiful or brutal in its simplicity, depending on your point of view. But he is going to go left, and he is going to score at an outrageous rate.

The Kings are one of the weakest teams in the NBA in terms of rim protection, as well. Kings opponents are shooting 69.5% at the rim this season, per Cleaning the Glass, a Bottom 5 mark. Domantas Sabonis is a wonderful talent, but he’s limited in length, mobility, and the tools needed to seriously deter a player like Zion. 

I expect the Kings to make the rematch more competitive, so I’m not worried about another blowout putting a damper on Zion’s minutes and production again.

Zion Williamson prop: Over 25.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Wolfpack defense

After cashing in on a Joel Embiid points prop last night, I’m turning around and betting his Under for Wednesday. Why? Two simple reasons.

The first is that this is a road back-to-back, and Embiid's Philadelphia 76ers will be flying to Minnesota after a hard-fought loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday that stretched into overtime. Embiid was visibly fatigued through parts of the fourth quarter and had a relatively inefficient game from the field, going 9-for-21 from the floor in over 41 minutes.

And he has to score against Rudy Gobert and the Minnesota Timberwolves defense. Gobert is revitalized this season and has been off since Monday with no travel. He has the right combination of size and length to genuinely bother Embiid on the block and further outside. The Wolves also have the right combination of wings and forwards to harass Embiid as helpers and force him to get off the ball.

Joel Embiid prop: Under 29.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)