Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Capitalizing on Scoring Struggles

You don’t win money with optimistic thinking. For today’s daily NBA props, I took a dispassionate look at the schedule and found a few players who have been underperforming relative to their capabilities. 

So we’re taking all Unders as we dive into Terry Rozier’s shooting struggles, Scottie Barnes’ burden, and the grim outlook for Reggie Jackson. Let’s dive in with a trio of free NBA betting picks for Monday, November 14.

NBA player props for November 14

• Rozier Under 21.5 pts (-104)
• Barnes Under 18.5 points (-107)
• Jackson Under 14.5 points (-118)

Picks made on 11/14/2022 at 3:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Not so scary Terry

The Charlotte Hornets are going nowhere fast. Projected by most books to finish with 36.5 wins, they’ve played like one of the worst teams in the NBA. Per Cleaning the Glass, to date, they’ve actually played at the level of a 24.2-win team. That stark drop off from expectation to reality is, of course, in part due to injuries and absences, but a big piece has been the fall-off in the play of Terry Rozier. 

Rozier has seen his usage soar with LaMelo Ball out of the lineup, and he hasn’t managed his increased load well. Indeed, Rozier is averaging just 97.5 points per 100 shooting possessions, one of the worst marks in the NBA at any position. He’s shooting an almost unbelievable 39% on twos, more than 12 points worse than his mark over the last two seasons. He’s also getting to the line less and shooting worse from just about every spot on the court.

Orlando is no pushover on defense either, particularly at the guard positions. Jalen Suggs made waves earlier this season when he had his first breakout game on offense since joining the NBA, but close watchers of Suggs’ game have known for a long time that this kid is going to be particularly special defensively. 

There’s a reason some draft experts used Jrue Holiday as the comparison point for Suggs’ realistic ceiling. He’s already one of the best defensive playmaking guards in the league, with a steal percentage that ranks in the 91% percentile among point guards.

With LaMelo back and taking over point guard duties again, Rozier will have fewer opportunities. Everything here points to the Under.

Terry Rozier Prop: Under 21.5 points (-104)

Scottie's struggles

The Toronto Raptors wouldn’t trade Scottie Barnes for Kevin Durant this summer. The crazy part is that most people think that was a pretty reasonable decision. That’s how high the NBA world at large (for the most part) is on Barnes' ceiling. Zach Lowe recently said on his podcast that he believes Barnes will be a “many, many times All-Star” type of player.

But expectations and reality have been divorced for most of Barnes’ season. While he looked awesome in the preseason and through the first few regular-season contests, things have sharply dropped off since then. Barnes is averaging just 13.8 points for the season and his true shooting percentage is barely above 50%. Once thought of as a surefire future All-Defense player, he’s more often than not been a massive liability in the Raptors’ aggressive scheme.

When Pascal Siakam exited the lineup due to a groin injury, the popular refrain was that the Raptors would be fine because Barnes was uniquely suited to step into his All-NBA-sized shoes. Not so, however. Barnes has instead struggled under the weight of the heavier load.

Rather than breaking out when fed more opportunity, the reigning Rookie of the Year is trending in the wrong direction. He’s scoring just 12 points over his last five games while shooting 34.2% from the field, a downright ghastly 20% from three, and an equally disturbing 60% from the line. 

What’s gone wrong? It’s possible Barnes might be nursing an injury, or perhaps his confidence is shaken, or Nurse is simply asking too much too soon of him to be an offensive initiator at this level. Still, it’s discouraging stuff, and it makes this line a bit puzzling. Barnes is averaging a full six points below this number over his last five and is well below it for the season as well.

Oh, and as an added bonus, you get to bet against the Raptors in one of the Dwane Casey revenge games, during which the basketball gods have clearly deemed they’re never to play well again.

Scottie Barnes Prop: Under 18.5 points (-107)

I'm sorry, Mr. Jackson

The Los Angeles Clippers are in an offensive stupor. Even if I had been told prior to the season that Kawhi wouldn’t return until later in the year, it would never have crossed my mind that L.A .would be the worst offense in the NBA through 13 games. Paul George is doing his part, but so many of the Clippers' role players are in an extended shooting slump, with Reggie Jackson chief among them.

But it’s also hard to call Reggie’s current level of play a slump exactly. Instead, it might be more accurate to refer to his 2020-21 season as an unsustainable hot streak. Jackson has a sub-50% effective field goal percentage for his career and has only shot league average or above from 3-point range twice in his 11-year career.

Even then, he only shot that well from the field in the 17 regular season games and the playoffs. This season, he’s shooting 28.8% from three despite being assisted at a higher rate on those attempts than at any point in his career. 

Jackson’s scoring difficulties don’t stop at shooting from deep. He’s shooting 46% at the rim, seventh percentile among combo guards per Cleaning the Glass. He’s averaging just 10.1 points on the season, well below his line for Monday’s game.

Reggie Jackson Prop: Under 14.5 points (-118)

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