Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: SGA Shows Out for the 6

It’s a packed eight-game slate for Friday, November 11.

With 16 teams to choose from, our NBA player prop picks take a look at the contrasting fortunes of two of Canada’s finest young guards in Jamal Murray and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. And lastly, why we like a plus-money prop for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope against the Boston Celtics. Let’s dive in.

NBA player props for November 11

• Murray Under 17.5 points (-104)
• Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 points (-113)
• Caldwell-Pope Over 2.5 3s (+148)

Picks made on 11/11/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Jamal Worry

While it’s not the career-ender it used to be, a torn ACL is still a major speed bump in an NBA career. Jamal Murray tore his left ACL in April of last year and after so much time away from the court, his physical and psychological recovery is a work in progress.

Murray at his best is a scoring machine, a unique player who blends the all offensive skillsets of a big into a guard’s body, blending devastating post moves and pivots with unconscious pull-up shooting. Trained by his father to play every position on the basketball court so to better understand his role as a point guard, there are few better shows in the sport when Murray is on. It’s completely understandable that he’ll be shaking off the rust for much of this season, but there’s good value for prop bettors in the meantime.

Murray’s points (15.7) and minutes (27.7) per game are at the lowest point since his rookie season. He’s also currently scoring the lowest points per possession of his career, in the bottom 20th percentile among all combo guards this season, per Cleaning the Glass. That drop-off in scoring and efficiency is coming from two primary changes to his game.

He’s shifted a substantial number of his shots from threes into midrange jumpers, perhaps a sign that his lift is not all the way back just yet. The second red flag is that Murray is shying away from contact. He’s in the fourth percentile in fouls drawn and he’s yet to record a block through 10 games. 

That lack of physicality is totally understandable at this point in his recovery, but it also spells death against the Boston Celtics. There is no more physical guard or wing defense than Marcus Smart, flanked by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. 

Even fully healthy, this group would be a troublesome matchup for Jamal, but in his current condition, this line is too optimistic.

Jamal Murray prop: Under 17.5 points (-104)

Canada’s Finest

Next, we turn our gaze to Murray’s Canadian national teammate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is balling out in Oklahoma City. It’s no exaggeration to say that the 24-year-old Torontonian is playing at an MVP level so far this season, stuffing the stat sheet in basically every respect while carrying a very limited Thunder squad on his back. 

The Most Improved Player odds leader is averaging a career-high 31.6 (!) points per game while shooting 56.8% from two-point range. He’s also lapping the field in terms of drives per game at 24.8 per contest and is adding 7.7 free throw attempts per game at a 94.8% clip. Opposing teams know he’s the Alpha and Omega of the Thunder offense and yet nobody has been able to stop him.

Shai making things even late in the third. pic.twitter.com/dHWg1sGSTz

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) November 10, 2022

He’s not a traditional perimeter player and only an average outside jump shooter, but let him break the paint at your own peril. Much like a souped-up, taller version of Jalen Brunson, SGA bamboozles defenders with a combination of shiftiness, hesitation dribbles, and as well as a silky short-range jumper to break down even the staunchest of defenders.

Fred VanVleet is a good defender, and the Toronto Raptors are a strong, savvy defensive unit. But getting this line a full three points lower than his current average is too good to pass up. It also doesn’t hurt that Shai clearly enjoys putting on a show when he knows his friends and family back in the 416 will be tuning in.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop: Over 28.5 points (-113)

KC3

This last prop is on the aggressive side, but the +148 value makes the juice worth the squeeze. Denver Nuggets shooting specialist Kentavious Caldwell-Pope currently ranks third in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at a preposterous 54.3%. He’s shooting pretty much as well from the corners as he is from above the break and is benefiting from having a higher percentage of his shots come off assists than at any other point his career.

The reason it’s aggressive is because the Celtics are a quality defense, and one of the few elite defenses that do a solid job of limiting opponent 3-point opportunities. That will be harder against the Nuggets though, because of who KCP is sharing the court with. 

Deep buckets were flyin' this week ????#MtnDew3pt | @MountainDew pic.twitter.com/KhkJCuQkOJ

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) November 7, 2022

Michael Porter Jr. is also shooting the lights out right now at 48.6%, and the Celtics’ perimeter defenders having to pick their poison between he and KCP increases the chances that both of them are able to shake loose. But the most important factor is, of course, Nikola Jokic.

It’s not just that Jokic is the most audacious passer in the league, nor that he’s consistently outstanding at throwing passes straight into the shooting pocket. It’s that the Boston Celtics are so thin in the frontcourt that as soon as Jokic touches the ball inside the arc, they’ll have to double him, or he’ll score basically every time. KCP has already proven he’s a pro at moving off-ball to accentuate these pain points on offense, and even against Boston’s defense, he should have a great chance at this Over.

Caldwell-Pope has hit three or more 3-pointers in six of his last nine games, it’s rare to get this kind of value on a probability.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Prop: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 2.5 threes (+148)

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