Best NBA Player Props Today: Green Breaks Down Bucks Defense

Prop bet #1: Dray' gets an 'A'

If you've been following my assists prop all season, you know how I feel about centers playing against the Milwaukee Bucks when the right opportunity presents itself. This is definitely the right opportunity, and we're going to hit the button. Draymond Green fits the profile of who has been successful for us against the Bucks: a center with some vision who is also capable of stepping out and shooting the 3-pointer. 

Honestly, this is just a good price in general for Green, even if the matchup wasn't against the Bucks. If you're going to give me Draymond Green at 4.5 (-125), I'm probably going to show you a bet slip at your sportsbook.

When I initially saw this number, I honestly thought I might be missing something here with Green. I mean, Green is a player we typically see traded at 6.5, so the 4.5 (-125) was definitely an eye-catcher. I think you're seeing this total come down for Green because of some recent Unders, but a lot of those were due to blowouts. 

Whether it was the Golden State Warriors getting absolutely destroyed by the Boston Celtics or the Warriors blowing out their opponent, it led to decreased minutes for Green in several games. Over the Warriors' last seven games, which is a big stretch for a player prop, the Warriors haven't really played a close game. 

Against the Bucks, we won't be seeing decreased minutes for Green. The Warriors' small-ball lineup is going to need his defense on the interior against this Bucks frontcourt of Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo (questionable), and Bobby Portis Jr. This is easily my favorite bet on the board, and you can see why in the probability gap. 

Green is projected to have 5.8 assists on Wednesday against the Bucks, which allows us to price the Draymond Green odds on Over 4.5 assists at -196, but it is available at bet365 at -125.

Draymond Green prop: Over 4.5 assists (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Making dollars with Dame

This bet on Damian Lillard is very simple for me. I don't think Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing for the Bucks, and this is why the bet on Lillard jumps from a nice probability gap in the odds to one of my favorite bets for the day.

Antetokounmpo missed Monday's game with an Achilles injury, and if you saw the video, he was warming up — not even running, just shooting jump shots — when he grabbed his Achilles and said the warmup was over. That doesn't look like an injury where Antetokounmpo will be ready to play just two days later. He wasn't even running wind sprints, and it felt sore. 

I think this injury might be worse than initially reported for Antetokounmpo, as he looked like he was in considerable pain when he stopped his warmup on Monday against the Los Angeles Clippers.

I'm evaluating this prop for Lillard as if Antetokounmpo is playing, because that's the safest way to go about this, and I like it either way. With Antetokounmpo in the lineup, Lillard is projected to have 7.1 assists, which means we can price the Over for 6.5 assists at -128, but it is available at DraftKings at +100.

You can see either way that this is a favorable bet on Lillard, but I think there is an opportunity here to steal a way better number than you should be getting on Lillard if Antetokounmpo does sit out. I'm just trying to jump in front of the news here but still using a prop where I think we have an edge either way.

I don't think you have an edge either way with Lillard's points prop, and that's why I went after the Damian Lillard odds for assists.

Damian Lillard prop: Over 6.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Business is blooming for DeRozan

Nikola Vucevic has been a staple for our assists props over the last week, and he has delivered two green checkmarks for us, but we're going to switch things up on Wednesday and go after his teammate, DeMar DeRozan. Attacking the DeMar DeRozan odds on his assists prop instead of Vucevic is directly related to the matchup against the Utah Jazz.

Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Taylor Hendricks have all been ruled out for the Jazz. This leaves the Jazz with very little rim protection on the interior, and it's a big reason I'm attacking DeRozan's assists prop instead of Vucevic. Vucevic should be able to finish around the rim for the Chicago Bulls all night, converting potential assists for his teammates.

The Jazz defense is also weak at the point of attack, and they don't possess a wing defender who can match the size of DeRozan. Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson, and Kris Dunn are all 6-foot-4 or smaller. I think DeRozan will be in complete control of this game against the Jazz and be able to get to his spots on the floor against their defense. Once he starts posting up their smaller guards, the Jazz will have to send help, which will open up potential assists for DeRozan.

DeRozan is projected to have 5.7 assists on Wednesday against the Jazz, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -190, but it is available at DraftKings at -135. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 14%.

DeMar DeRozan prop: Over 4.5 assists (-135 at DraftKings)