It’s a light night in the NBA, with just the Thursday night double-header on the schedule as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers visit Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers before Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors host the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Sportsbooks have finally adjusted to Embiid’s torrid scoring pace but can LeBron and the Lakers be the ones to slow down the Sixers’ big man? And can Curry shoot himself out of his slump?
Find out in our NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 27, as we bank on some of the NBA's best to do their thing.
NBA player props for January 27
- LeBron James Over 8.5 rebounds (+110)
- Kevon Looney Over 8.5 rebounds (-120)
- Steph Curry Over 3.5 made threes (-145)
Picks made on 1/27/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
King of the glass
We can’t talk about today's NBA player props without mentioning Joel Embiid’s point total. The Philadelphia 76ers’ big man has been close to unstoppable since the middle of December, averaging 34.2 points per game over his last 18 games and putting up 31 or more 16 times over that stretch.
That dominance has forced sportsbooks to up his points total to a very high 33.5 for tonight’s matchup against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. That said, the Over is still tempting considering how the Lakers have struggled in the paint this season, but the juice gives us pause. So, while we certainly can’t fade Embiid the way he is playing, we’ll stay away considering the juice at that number.
Embiid’s run has created another opportunity for NBA player prop bettors. Opposing teams have had to use their traditional centers more to try and slow down Embiid. The last three centers facing Embiid have grabbed double-digit rebounds.
The Lakers haven’t really used a traditional center much of late and you can’t expect them to push Anthony Davis too hard in just his second game back from injury. So, that means LeBron might have to do some more work on the glass in this matchup.
James averages 7.7 rebounds per game this season and that has bumped up to 8.6 over his last eight games, grabbing nine or more boards in four of those games. Getting plus-money on the Over for the King's rebounds looks like a good bet here.
Pick: LeBron James Over 8.5 rebounds (+110 at FanDuel)
Looney's tuned in
One of my favorite prop bets going right now is the Over on Kevon Looney’s rebounding total. The Golden State Warriors big man has been a beast on the boards ever since Draymond Green went down with a calf injury a few weeks ago and sportsbooks haven’t made the appropriate adjustments to this point.
Looney’s rebounding total for tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves is set at 8.5 and while the Over is juiced, the number is off enough to take a hard look at the Over. While Looney averages 7.3 rebounds per game this season, that number bumps up to 10.5 in the 11 games since Green has been out, and he has hauled down nine or more rebounds eight times over this 11-game stretch.
The matchup with the Timberwolves certainly doesn’t hurt. Minnesota is not a great team when it comes to cleaning up the glass and ranks 21st in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 22nd in opponent rebounds per game.
Maybe someday books will pick up on Looney’s work on the boards, but it isn’t tonight. Take the Over on his rebounding total once again.
Pick: Kevon Looney Over 8.5 rebounds (-120 at FanDuel)
We’re going with another prop for this Wolves-Dubs matchup because, well, there are only two games on the board tonight. But the other reason is that we are getting an interesting number on Steph Curry’s made threes prop because of his recent shooting slump.
Over Curry's last two games, he's made just three of his last 27 from beyond the arc and is shooting an almost unbelievable 27% from 3-point range over his last 11 games overall. Despite the slump, Curry has still hit four or more threes five times over that 11-game stretch.
And, you know that a little slump isn’t going to stop Curry from letting it rain threes. He is still averaging 10.5 attempts from deep per game over that span and this is still Steph Curry we are talking about. If there is someone who can shoot himself out of a slump, it’s him.
So, when you see a made 3-point total set at 3.5, it’s hard to say no to the Over against a team that allows the 25th most 3-point attempts per game.
Pick: Steph Curry Over 3.5 made threes (-145 at DraftKings)
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