Pelicans vs Suns Game 1 Picks and Predictions: Ain't All Sunshine and Rainbows for Phoenix in G1

The New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns begin their first-round playoff series on Sunday night.

With the No. 1-seeded Suns ending the regular season with a 64-18 record and the Pelicans finishing 10 games below .500, oddsmakers expect a lopsided matchup. NBA betting lines opened with the Suns as double-digit home favorites for Game 1 of this seven-game series.

Here are our best free Pelicans vs. Suns NBA betting picks and predictions for Sunday, April 17, with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.

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Pelicans vs Suns odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board with the spread at Phoenix -10.5 and the total at 226.5. As of Saturday afternoon, the line hadn't moved but the Over/Under had ticked down to 225.5. 

When these teams previously played against each other on March 15, the Suns cruised to a 131-115 victory as 4.5-point road favorites. Chris Paul did not play in that game for Phoenix but New Orleans was also missing one its top players in Brandon Ingram. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pelicans vs Suns predictions

• Prediction: Pelicans +10.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 225.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Pelicans 3Q +3.5 (-118)

Predictions made on 4/16/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Pelicans vs Suns game info

• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Sunday, April 17, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Pelicans vs Suns series odds

Pelicans: +1,000
Suns: -2,500

Pelicans vs Suns betting preview

Key injuries

Pelicans: Zion Williamson PF (Out), Kira Lewis Jr. G (Out).
Suns: Landry Shamet G (Questionable), Cameron Payne G (Probable), Dario Saric F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Suns.

Pelicans vs Suns picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

If anybody thought that the Suns were due for a letdown after losing in the NBA Finals last year, they've been silenced. Phoenix easily rolled to the NBA's best record despite missing Chris Paul and Devin Booker for a total of 31 games.

The Suns had the best net rating in the league and were a Top-5 team on both offense and defense. Although they closed out the regular season with four losses in their last six games, we wouldn't put much stock in that since they rested Booker or Paul in three of those defeats and the other came on the road against No. 2 seed Memphis. 

The Pelicans won back-to-back games in the NBA Play-In Tournament to make it into the playoffs, most recently taking advantage of Paul George's absence to defeat the Clippers 105-101 on Friday night. NOLA began the season with an ugly 1-12 record but made major strides down the stretch. 

Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have gone 15-10 straight up and against the spread and their average scoring margin of plus-4.9 points per game over that span is the sixth-best mark in the NBA. A big reason for that improvement was the addition of C.J. McCollum (24.3 ppg), who gave them another ball-handler and shot-creator to compliment Brandon Ingram (22.7 ppg). 

As good as the Suns have been, they've gone just 3-8 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit favorite. They could also start off a bit slow in this one since their starters haven't played in nine days after sitting out the regular-season finale.

With the Pelicans coming into this series with momentum, we'll take them with the points. 

Prediction: Pelicans +10.5 (-110 at William Hill)

Over/Under analysis

The Pelicans aren't exactly known for their defense but they do a good job of cleaning up on the glass and forcing turnovers. They also finished the regular season 21st in the league in pace and played at an even slower tempo during their play-in games. 

Meanwhile, Phoenix allowed just 107.3 points per game on 44.4% shooting during the regular season and those numbers are both likely to drop even further with high-intensity playoff basketball on the horizon. 

Keep in mind that the Suns played at a slower pace during last season's playoff run than they did during the regular season and trimmed their points per game allowed from 109.5 to 104.5. They should be even tougher on defense this time around with Mikal Bridges growing into one of the league's best defenders while Jae Crowder and DeAndre Ayton give Monty Williams matchup versatility. 

With the Under going 15-5-1 in the Pelicans' last 21 games on the road and the Suns cashing the Under in four straight contests at Footprint Center, we're leaning towards the Under on Sunday. 

Prediction: Under 225.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

The Pelicans have really taken off over the last couple of months and their best play has often come just after halftime (with the exception of their play-in game versus the Clippers). Since the All-Star break, New Orleans leads the NBA with an average third-quarter scoring margin of plus-4.0 ppg.

Over the same period of time, the Suns have been vulnerable defensively during the third quarter, ranking 20th in the league with 29.2 ppg allowed during the frame.

With Phoenix currently installed as 3.5-point favorites on the third-quarter line, we'll gladly grab the points with the Pels. 

Pick: Pelicans Third Quarter +3.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

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