Well, that was unexpected.
The Denver Nuggets did not care that they had fewer than 48 hours between rounds. They simply went and shocked the Oklahoma City Thunder in the closing seconds on Monday.
My Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions rely on trusting the best player in the world to continue putting in the work tonight.
Here are my NBA picks for Game 2, with tip-off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May 7.
Who will win Nuggets vs Thunder Game 2?
If there was a lesson for the Oklahoma City Thunder to learn in Game 1, it was to never ease up in the playoffs. A 20-point lead is never safe in the modern NBA, but it is especially unsafe amid the postseason stakes and against teams good enough to reach the playoffs.
Young teams need to learn those lessons the hard way. The Timberwolves, simply as a quick example, learned that exact lesson three years ago, blowing multiple 20-point leads in a first-round series against the Grizzlies. It was miserable then, but it is a lesson that simply had to be suffered.
Oklahoma City should internalize that and be ready for Game 2. It outplayed the Denver Nuggets for the vast majority of Game 1. Replicate that and the Thunder will even this series.
Nuggets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365)
Consider this bet to be an open acknowledgement the Game 1 upset has scared yours truly far away from either side in Game 2. Could Denver let up off the gas after that one success and tell itself to be content going home tied at 1-1? Yes, absolutely. Could Oklahoma City be in over its head against the 2023 champions and a three-time MVP? Quite possibly.
The one thing that seems certain is Nikola Jokic will not let up. His impassioned speech in a closing minutes huddle made it clear Jokic thinks he still has some season left to win.
The Nuggets could have slipped into absolute disarray after the absurd timing of ownership’s firing of head coach Mike Malone. Instead, they survived a seven-game series against the Clippers and now won a game on the road with all expectations against them.
Maybe this is what Denver’s ownership feared: Malone going on a postseason run and winning his way back into the job for next season. Maybe they knew this team had more to show when it mattered most. Maybe Jokic knows that now.
Jokic played 42 minutes in Game 1, grabbing 22 rebounds and logging a +10 in a game Denver won by two. He may not look like it at a glance, but he just might be the best-conditioned player in the NBA.
Betting on Jokic on the glass makes sense for three reasons, one of them being his conditioning. No matter what is or is not working for the superstar, he can continue to attack the glass.
Secondly, Thunder centers Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren combined for only 15 rebounds in Game 1, both limited by foul trouble. Holmgren is stronger than he looks or is broadly recognized, but neither he nor Hartenstein is remotely strong enough to handle Jokic.
Lastly, as evidence of that mismatch, Jokic has cleared this prop in three of five games against OKC this season. The two times he fell short, he still grabbed 12 and 13 boards.
He knows he owns the rim in this matchup. No matter how tired everyone else may be or how surprising this series could become, trusting Jokic at the rim makes sense.
Nuggets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds
Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 threes
Thunder moneyline
Jokic does not shoot as well against Oklahoma City. He went 2 of 6 from deep in Game 1, now 7-for-28 against the Thunder this season. As much as you might focus on that 25%, realize it is worse than it seems.
For context, Jokic hit 42.5% of his threes against everyone else this regular season. Holmgren and Hartenstein might not be up to take Jokic’s body blows, but Holmgren, in particular, can contest his perimeter shots.
Betting on Oklahoma City to win this game is simply a stressor worth enduring. The Thunder should keep Game 2 from ever reaching clutch time.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Thunder odds
Nuggets vs Thunder live odds
Nuggets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Denver +11.5 | Oklahoma City -11.5
- Moneyline: Denver +425 | Oklahoma City -575
- Over/Under: Over 231 | Under 231
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City closed as a 10.5-point favorite in Game 1, a 9.5-point favorite for much of the lead-up. Jumping this spread to -11 or -11.5 is a move entirely based on narrative.
- If anything, the spread should have tightened. Denver exceeded expectations in Game 1, and the rest disadvantage is no longer as distinct.
- The total ticking up reflects some of Game 1, where it was at 229.5 in a game that finished with 240 points.
Nuggets vs Thunder trend
Denver has gone 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five games while Oklahoma City has gone 0-3 ATS in its last three. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Nuggets vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Nuggets vs Thunder latest injuries
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